Snow returns to Victoria after 1,785 snow-free days!

After a very long snow drought, snow finally returned to Victoria in December 2016.

It started with a light dusting on December 5 - about 2 cm, but not enough to cover the grass.  Then on December 9, Victoria received about 5 cm of snow - its first significant snowfall since 2012. Here's a photo of the Inner Harbour area taken on my way to work, around 7:30 that morning:

As is usually the case in Victoria, the snow didn't last long.  By the afternoon, the melting was well under way.  Here is another photo, taken about 4:45 pm, on my way home from work, and you can see that the grass is already showing on the lawn in front of the Legislature.  By the next morning, the snow had all melted.

When I refer to significant snow, I mean more than 2-3 cm and enough to completely cover the ground (and the grass).  The last time we had snow covering the ground in downtown Victoria was January 17-20, 2012.  That's 1,785 days without significant snow on the ground!  While official "snow depth on the ground" measurements were only made at Victoria Gonzales from 1955 to 1988, I'm pretty sure that is a record for Victoria -  nearly five years with no significant snow on the ground!

I noticed that some of the local media were referring to 1,000 days without significant snow, but they were basing that on the "official" record out at the Victoria Airport.  Unfortunately, the Airport gets much more snow than downtown - more than twice as much.  There was quite a lot of snow out at the Airport back in February 2014 (1,000 days prior to the recent snow) but Victoria did not get that snow.  In fact, here is a photo I took on February 23, 2014, a day when there was 21 cm of snow recorded out at the Victoria Airport:

In our most recent bout of snow, we did receive a couple more very light dustings (less than 1 cm) on December 12, and again on December 17.  But really, we ended up with just one day with actual snow on the ground (December 9).  That's sure a lot better than some areas up-Island and in the Vancouver suburbs, where there was almost  continuous snow on the ground for up to 3 weeks!  We are very lucky in Victoria, that so often we can be snow free when there is snow all around us.  To illustrate, here is a map from NOAA showing snow cover in our area on December 16.  You can see that the core area of Victoria has no snow, while there is snow up on the Saanich Peninsula, the Gulf Islands, all the rest of Vancouver Island, and the Vancouver area.

Fall 2016 - October and November in Victoria

It's been a while since I've posted, so I'm trying to get caught up.  I'll start with a brief look at the weather in Victoria for October and November 2016.

October: a bit milder and much wetter than normal

October was a bit warmer than average, with a mean temperature of 11.5 degrees at Victoria Gonzales versus the 30-year average of 11.1.  The mean daily high and low temperatures for the month were 14.0 / 8.9 versus the normal average of 13.9 / 8.2, so the daily high temperatures averaged only very slightly above the normal while the daily low temperature was more significantly above the normal.  The warmest temperature during the month was 18.0 on October 5th while the coldest was 5.6 on the 12th.

October was also wetter than normal, with 116 mm of rain, nearly 50% more that the normal of 79 mm.  The wettest day was 21.2 mm on October 20th.  Overall, there was measurable rain on 21 days during October, much more than the normal 12.4 days.  While it was wet at Victoria Gonzales, it was much wetter up at the Victoria Airport in North Saanich, which saw 234 mm of rainfall during the month - double what Victoria proper received.

November: record-breaking warmth and fairly dry

November 2016 was very mild in Victoria - in fact it was the warmest November ever recorded at Victoria Gonzales.  The mean temperature for the month was 9.9 degrees -  more than two degrees above the 30-year average of 7.6 degrees.  The old record for November was 9.3 degrees, recorded in both 1949 and 1954, so November 2016 topped that by a fairly large margin.  The mean daily high and low temperatures for the month were 11.9 / 7.7 versus the normal average of 9.9 / 5.4, so both daytime highs and overnight lows were well above normal.  The warmest temperature during the month was 16.8 degrees on November 8th while the coldest was 4.0 on the 27th.

November 2016 was also significantly drier than normal, with just 78 mm of rain - nearly 40% less than the normal of 127 mm.  However, there was measurable rainfall on 20 days during the month, which is actually a bit higher than the average of 18 days - so quite a lot of rainy days but not much heavy rain.  The wettest day was 16 mm on November 5th.  As in October, November was much wetter up at the Airport, which received 176 mm of rainfall during the month - considerably more than double what was recorded at Victoria Gonzales.  The pattern this month seemed to be a lot of days with just very light rainfall in Victoria - much less than in surrounding areas.

A fairly normal September

September was slightly wetter and slightly cooler than normal in Victoria, but nothing too extreme.

Rainfall for the month was 27.6 mm, a bit more than the 1981-2010 average of 23.9 mm for September at Victoria Gonzales.  There were 9 days with measurable rainfall (compared with the normal of 6.5 days), with the highest amount (11.6 mm) on the 17th.  The Victoria Airport received just slightly more rainfall in September, 31.1 mm.

The mean temperature was a bit lower than the 1981-2010 average: 14.2 degrees versus 14.6 degrees.   September 2016 ended a nine month streak of above average monthly temperatures at Victoria Gonzales: it was the first month since November 2015 to be below normal temperature.  While September was a bit cooler than the average for the past 30 years, if you look at the past 119 Septembers at Victoria Gonzales, this month's temperature falls almost exactly middle of the pack (i.e. the median).  The average daily max and min temperature this September was 17.6/10.6.  The average max temperature was about one degree below normal, but the average min temperature was right on the normal.  The highest temperature for the month was 22.9 on the 13th while the lowest was 6.6 on the 30th.  At the Victoria Airport, the mean temperature was 14.3, which was slightly higher than the 30-year average of 14.1.

A look back at summer 2016

Now that August is over, meteorological summer (June, July, and August) is also over.  Summer 2016 started out a little more unsettled than usual in Victoria, but in the end it turned out to be very nice.

At Victoria Gonzales, there was a total of 41 mm of rain during June, July, and August.  That's a little drier than the 50 mm that Victoria receives on average during the summer, but nothing unusual.  In fact, about 40% of the summers at Victoria Gonzales over the past 118 years have been drier, with the driest summer (1970) receiving just 10.5 mm of rain during June, July, and August.  While this June was a little wetter than normal, July and August were both a little drier.  There were 15 days with measurable precipitation during the summer, which is right on average.

The chart below shows daily rainfall during summer 2016, and compares the cumulative rainfall with the 30-year average.  You can see that June and the first week in July was generally a little wetter than average, but then it was very dry until the last few days in August.  From July 10 to August 27, there was a seven week stretch with just one day and only 1 mm of rain, and from July 23 to August 27, there was a 36-day period with no measurable precipitation.  That's a little longer than the typical drought period that Victoria receives each summer, which averages 28 days.

Daily and cumulative rainfall, 2016 vs 30-year average

The chart below compares Victoria's rainfall during summer 2016 with a number of other locations.  Compared with Victoria Gonzales' 42 mm, the Victoria Airport actually received slightly less rain, at 38 mm.  In Vancouver, there was 105 mm at the Airport and 156 mm downtown at the Harbour (so nearly four times as much rain as Victoria).  Up-Island also had more rain than Victoria, with 115 mm at Nanaimo and 95 mm at Comox.  Rainfall in Seattle was closest to Victoria, although there was still nearly twice as much, with 68 mm.  Finally, I have included Toronto's 133 mm.  There was a lot of coverage in the news about the drought affecting Southern Ontario, so this shows that everything's relative: even with one of the worst droughts in memory, Toronto still received more than three times as much rain as Victoria this summer.

Total rainfall, summer 2016

Now lets talk about temperatures.  The mean temperature for June, July, and August at Victoria Gonzales was 16.4 degrees, substantially higher than the 30-year average of 15.6.  In fact, summer 2016 was the 6th warmest in 119 years of record-keeping at Gonzales.  (Last year's summer, at 16.9 degrees, was the warmest on record.)  June's mean temperature of 15.5 degrees was 1.0 degrees above normal, while July's mean of 16.1 degrees was right on normal.  It was August when things really heated up: the mean temperature of 17.5 was 1.2 degrees above normal and just 0.1 degrees below the all time record.  In fact, at the Victoria Airport it was the hottest August on record.

The chart below shows the daily maximum and minimum temperatures at Victoria Gonzales during summer 2016, compared with the 30-year averages.  You can see that there were spikes of above average temperatures in June and again in August, while temperatures in July stayed very close to the average.  The warmest temperature of the summer was 33.1 degrees on August 19.

Daily maximum and minimum temperatures at Victoria Gonzales , summer 2016

A dry and very warm August

August in Victoria was drier and much warmer than normal.

After experiencing very average temperatures in July, Victoria was much warmer in August.  The mean temperature for the month was 17.5 degrees, making it the second warmest August on record at Victoria Gonzales, just a sliver behind the record of 17.6 degrees in 1997.  The Victoria Airport set a new record for the warmest August in 2016, with a mean temperature of 18.3 degrees, beating the old record of 18.1 set in 2004.  Since the beginning of 2014, 29 of the past 32 months have been warmer than the long term average in Victoria.

The chart below compares the daily high and low temperatures with the averages for August.  Temperatures fluctuated between being close to average and being well above average.  The warmest temperature during the month was 33.1 degrees on August 19th.  That was not only a record for the date, but it was the warmest temperature ever recorded at Gonzales for any day after August 15.  Heat waves like that are rarer in the second half of August than they are earlier in the summer.

Daily maximum and minimum temperatures, August 2016

For most of the month, August was very dry, with no measurable rainfall until the 28th.  Victoria then received 7.2 mm during the last four days of the month.  That was still well below the normal of 18.6 mm for the month, but not usually so: in the past 119 years, Victoria Gonzales has had less than 7.2 mm during August 28 times, or about one quarter of the time.

The chart below compares daily and cumulative rainfall in August 2016 with the average cumulative rainfall for August.  You can clearly see how most of the month was very dry and well below the average.

Daily and cumulative rainfall, August 2016

While, on average, Victoria Gonzales is the driest location in the region, this August there was actually less rain at the Airport: 3.2 mm vs. 7.2 mm.  It was generally dry at other nearby locations, though not quite so dry as Victoria.  In Vancouver, there was 13.8 mm at the Airport and 12.5 mm downtown at the Harbour.  Up-Island, there was 20.8 mm at Nanaimo and 26.1 mm at Comox.  In Seattle, there was just 4.3 mm of rain during August.

Which has a better climate - Victoria or Calgary

Our climate smackdown series continues.  We have already compared Victoria's climate with Vancouver and Toronto.  This time we'll look at Calgary.  

Let's start with precipitation.  On an annual basis, Calgary gets about 35%  less precipitation than Victoria - 419 mm in Calgary versus 641 mm in Victoria.    If you split that into rain and snow, Calgary gets barely half as much rain as Victoria (326 mm vs. 621 mm) but Calgary gets about six and a half times as much snow (129 cm vs. 20 cm).  

Calgary also greatly differs from Victoria in the seasonal pattern of its precipitation.  Victoria gets most of its rain in late fall and winter, while the late spring and summer is very dry.  In Calgary, the precipitation pattern is the opposite of this, with a very dry late fall and winter, but a decidedly wet late spring and summer.  You can see the difference in the chart below.  The driest six months in Victoria occur during the growing season, from April to September, with a total of just 137 mm, or 21% of the annual total during that period.  By contrast, April to September are the wettest six months of the year in Calgary, with 344 mm or about 82% of the annual total (and two and half times as much rain as Victoria gets during the growing season).   During Victoria's wettest months, in November, December, and January, it gets about ten times as much precipitation as Calgary, but during the dry summer months of June, July, and August, Calgary gets four to five times as much rain as Victoria.  While Victoria gets more annual precipitation than Calgary, Victoria, on average, is drier than Calgary during five months; May, June, July, August, and September,  One of the big reasons for the much drier summers in Victoria is the lack of thunderstorms: Calgary averages about 27 days annually with thunderstorms - nearly all between May and August - compared with about one day per year in Victoria.

We can also compare the frequency of precipitation.  For example, Victoria averages 133 days per year with measurable precipitation versus 112 days in Calgary. The chart below compares the % chance of measurable precipitation on any given day throughout the year.  There is much more seasonal variation in Victoria, ranging from 60% chance during November and December to a 10% chance in late July and early August.  The likelihood of precipitation has a smaller seasonal range in Calgary, from about 20% in November and December up to about 45% in June.  The chance of having a day with measurable rainfall is lower in Victoria from late April until mid-September.  From late-July until mid-August, Calgary is more than three times as likely as Victoria to get a rainy day.  During November and December, the reverse is true, with Victoria about three times as likely to get a day with precipitation compared with Calgary.

As noted earlier, Calgary gets more than 6 times as much snow as Victoria, with an average 129 cm annually in Calgary versus 20 cm in Victoria.  Snow also stays on the ground much longer in Calgary, with an average of 86 days each winter with at least 1 cm of snow on the ground compared with 5 days for Victoria.  Although on average, Victoria gets much less snow, it has had more really large snowfalls than Calgary.  The biggest one-day snowfall in  Calgary in the past 100 years was 48 cm in May 1981.  In Victoria, there have been three one-day snowfalls that exceeded 50 cm, in February 1916, February 1923, and December 1996.  

Calgary does beat Victoria in terms of sunshine, with an average 2,396 hours of sunshine annually, nearly 9% more sunshine than Victoria's 2,203 hours.  Victoria averages 315 days per year with at least some measurable sunshine; Calgary gets 333 such days.  Looking at the flip side, Victoria averages 50 days each year with no measurable sunshine while Calgary averages just 32 such days.  While Calgary gets more sunshine than Victoria on an annual basis, there are some important seasonal variations, as was the case with precipitation.  The chart below shows the % of possible sunshine, by month, throughout the year.  Victoria gets a much lower percentage of possible sunshine than Calgary during the winter months.  In December, for example, Victoria gets just 26% of possible sunshine hours while Calgary gets 46%.  However, from May through September Victoria gets a higher percentage of possible sunshine than Calgary.  Victoria's summer sunshine advantage peaks in July,  when it's sunny 69% of the time in Victoria compared with about 63% in Calgary. 

Now let's compare temperature.  Calgary, of course, has much colder winters, and it also has a  much greater seasonal variation in temperature compared with Victoria.  The chart below shows the average daily maximum temperature in Victoria versus Calgary.   Average maximum temperatures in Victoria range from 7 degrees in December to 21 degrees in July - a difference of about 14 degrees.   In contrast, maximum temperatures in Calgary range from -4 degrees in January to 25 degrees in July - a range of 29 degrees, or more than twice the range experienced in Victoria.  The average daily maximum temperature is warmer in Victoria from the beginning of September until mid-May.  The greatest difference is in  late January, when the average daily maximum is nearly 12 degrees warmer in Victoria compared with Calgary.  In contrast, in July the average daily maximum temperature is 3.5 degrees cooler in Victoria compared with Calgary.  (It should be noted that the numbers for Victoria are based on Victoria Gonzales, located right on the Strait of Juan de Fuca.  Away from the Strait, at the University of Victoria, the average high temperature in July is 23.8 degrees, nearly 3 degrees warmer than Gonzales and about the same as Calgary).  

The record maximum  temperature for Victoria is 36.0 degrees versus 36.1 degrees for Calgary.  Calgary gets an average of 87 days per year above 20 degrees and 5 days above 30 degrees.  In contrast, Victoria gets an average of just 50 days per year above 20 degrees and 1 day per year above 30 degrees.  Again, if you measure the temperature away from the Strait of Juan de Fuca (at the University of Victoria), it's more like 95 days above 20 degrees and 3 days above 30 degrees.  

The next chart shows average daily overnight low temperatures in Victoria versus Calgary.  Compared with Victoria, average overnight lows are cooler in Calgary throughout the year.  However, there is a much greater seasonal variation in Calgary, so there is a much greater difference between Victoria and Calgary in the winter.  Overnight temperatures range from about 3 degrees cooler than Victoria in the summer down to nearly 20 degrees colder than Victoria in the winter.  In Calgary, average overnight lows are below 0 from the mid-October until the end of April, and Calgary averages a whopping 194 days per year with overnight lows below freezing.  Victoria averages less than 10 such "frost days" per year.  

The coldest temperature ever recorded in Victoria was -15.6 degrees in December 1968.  On the other hand, Victoria has experienced 7 winters in the past 118 years when the temperature did not drop below freezing.  The coldest temperature recorded during the winter of 1925-26 was +1.1 degrees, making it the highest low temperature for any winter on record.  In Calgary, the lowest temperature ever recorded was -45 degrees.  The highest low temperature for any winter in Calgary was -22 degrees during the winter of 1986/87.  In Victoria, the average coldest temperature each winter is -4.8 degrees, while the average winter low temperature for Calgary is -34 degrees.  

So who wins the climate smackdown?  I think Victoria clearly wins in terms of temperatures.  While summer high temperatures are a little cooler in Victoria (at least near the water), Calgary is much colder in the winter, and overnight temperatures are colder in Calgary throughout the year.  On an annual basis, Calgary is drier and sunnier than Victoria (although Calgary gets much more snow).  However, during the warmer late-spring and summer months, Victoria actually gets less rain and more sunshine than Calgary.  While Victoria is much wetter and cloudier during the winter months compared with Calgary, it is also much warmer.  While the definition of best climate is subjective, I think Victoria wins this showdown: it has a sunnier, drier summer than Calgary and, in my opinion, a cloudier and wetter winter is a worthwhile trade-off for Victoria's much milder winter temperatures, 

Victoria's advantage when the weather is unsettled

We're currently into a perfect stretch of warm, dry and sunny summer weather: take a look at the forecast for Victoria for the next week.

However, it seems like earlier in the summer the weather was a bit more unsettled than usual, especially in June and the first half of July.  While we might complain when the weather's not perfect in the summer, we should remember that compared with other locations in the region, Victoria's weather actually stands out the most when the weather pattern is a bit more unsettled.  When we have a strong ridge of high pressure giving us the sunny weather we're currently experiencing, other parts of the B.C. south coast are usually experiencing similar conditions.  It's when the weather's unsettled that Victoria's climate really shines.  Unsettled weather during the summer might mean a little more cloud and a chance of sprinkles in Victoria, while in other parts of the region they are getting much more cloud and rain.

Let's start by comparing the rainfall in Victoria and Vancouver this summer.  The chart below compares monthly rainfall from May up until today (August 14) at Victoria Gonzales and Vancouver Harbour (downtown).  You can see that Vancouver has clearly had a LOT more rain.

Summer 2016 Monthly Rainfall, Victoria vs. Vancouver

On average, Vancouver gets about three times as much rainfall from May to August than Victoria (240 mm vs. 80 mm).  This year, Vancouver has had five times as much rain as Victoria (224 mm vs 45 mm).

The chart below compares the total May-August 2016 rainfall (up to August 14) at Victoria Gonzales with several other  locations in the region.  Although the Victoria Airport usually gets about 35-40% more rain than Victoria Gonzales during the summer, this year it's been almost as dry.  However, Vancouver Airport (located in a relatively dry part of the Vancouver region) has had more than three times as much rain as Victoria, and as we've seen, Vancouver Harbour has seen five times as much rain.  Nanaimo, Comox, and Campbell River - which normally get about twice as much rain as Victoria during the summer - have received nearly three times as much rain as Victoria this summer. Finally, Seattle Airport - which normally gets about 60% more rain than Victoria during the summer - has received about double Victoria's rainfall this summer.

Total Rainfall, May to August 2016

So during this somewhat unsettled summer, other locations in the region have received even more rain relative to Victoria than they normally do.  We might grumble sometimes when we get a patch of unsettled weather in the summer instead of the endless sunny days that we expect, but we should keep in mind that when it's unsettled here in Victoria, it's probably still a lot better weather than other parts of the region.

While we're talking about the rainfall amounts this summer, I'd just like to comment on another case of it all being relative.  We've heard in the news that Southern Ontario is experiencing a severe drought this summer.  In Toronto, they have received just 45% of their normal rainfall since the beginning of May.  Sounds pretty dry, doesn't it?  The thing is, normal May-August rainfall in Toronto is 300 mm, so 45% of that is 135 mm - or about three times as much rain as Victoria has seen over the same period.  For Victoria, 135 mm of rain during May to August would be an unusually wet summer, and certainly wouldn't be considered a severe drought!  In fact, in 117 years of record-keeping at Victoria Gonzales, there have only been five summers where our rainfall totals have reached 135 mm.  As I said, it's all relative!