What is the likelihood of rain on any given date in Victoria?

The chart below shows the chance of measurable precipitation in Victoria on any given date.  It is based on Environment Canada long term climate data for Victoria Gonzales (1914-2020).  Comparable data for Vancouver, Calgary, and Toronto has also been included for comparison.

The line for Victoria shows a rainy late fall and winter with a distinct summer drought period, characteristic a Mediterranean climate.  The average daily chance of precipitation ranges from a high of more than 60% in November to less than 10% in late July.  The precipitation chance starts at  close to 60% in January, followed by a gradual decrease through the late winter and spring.  By mid-June, the rain chance has dropped to 20%, and it stays in that range until mid-July.  Then there is a very sharp drop, from just over 20% on July 11 to less than 10% from July 20 to August 2nd - that's the time to plan your outdoor activities in Victoria since you are almost guaranteed dry weather!  In early August, the chance of rain once again starts increasing, reaching a peak of 64% by mid-November, when it levels off.  There is a much steeper increase in the likelihood of rain during the late summer and fall compared with the more gradual decrease in the rain chance during the late winter and spring.  

Perhaps not surprisingly, Vancouver follows a similar pattern of dry summers and wet winters, although the chance of rain is consistently higher in Vancouver, ranging from a peak of 70% to a low point of 15%.  This higher chance of rain is to be expected given that Vancouver gets more than twice as much rain overall than Victoria.  Calgary's precipitation pattern is more or less the opposite of Victoria's (or Vancouver's), with the lowest chance of precipitation during the late fall and winter (dropping as low as 15% in early November) and a peak of rainfall during the late spring and summer (topping out at 45% in late June).  Toronto's precipitation pattern shows the least seasonal variation of the four cities, although there still is a dip in the rain chance during the summer, to a low of 28% in mid-August versus a peak of 52% in early January.  

The chance of precipitation is lower in Victoria than it is in Calgary for just under 4.5 months, from May 5 until September 15.  The chance of precipitation in Victoria is lower than it is in Toronto for just over 6 months, from April 1 to October 8.  

How rainy is Victoria compared with other cities in Canada? It depends on where in the region you are.

When talking about Victoria's climate, this blog primarily uses data from the Victoria Gonzales weather station.  This station, located in the southeast part of the City of Victoria near the border with Oak Bay, was Victoria's official weather station for many decades.

Thanks to its southeastern location, precipitation at Victoria Gonzales is strongly impacted by the Olympic Mountain rainshadow.  That influence tends to lessen the further north and west you go in the Greater Victoria region.  Thus, when we've stated on the blog that Victoria gets less rainfall than most cities in Canada, that is based on rainfall in Victoria Gonzales, and is not necessarily true for some of the wetter parts of the region.

Below is a chart that compares average annual precipitation at various locations in Greater Victoria with major cities across Canada.  As you can see, annual precipitation at both Victoria Gonzales (608 mm) and the University of Victoria (643 mm) is relatively low.  Across Canada, only cities in the B.C. Interior and on the Prairies are drier.  In fact, just 18% of Canada's urban population lives in cities with lower annual precipitation than these two locations.   Esquimalt Harbour (861 mm) and the Victoria Airport in North Saanich (883 mm), fall more in the middle of the pack among Canadian cities, with roughly half of Canada's urban population living in cities that are drier than these locations.  Meanwhile, Langford (1133 mm) and Sooke (1236 mm) get more annual precipitation than most cities in Canada: only cities in southwestern B.C., parts of Quebec, and Atlantic Canada get more precipitation.  In fact, 81-86% of Canada's urban population lives in cities that are drier than these locations.

A fairly normal September

September was slightly wetter and slightly cooler than normal in Victoria, but nothing too extreme.

Rainfall for the month was 27.6 mm, a bit more than the 1981-2010 average of 23.9 mm for September at Victoria Gonzales.  There were 9 days with measurable rainfall (compared with the normal of 6.5 days), with the highest amount (11.6 mm) on the 17th.  The Victoria Airport received just slightly more rainfall in September, 31.1 mm.

The mean temperature was a bit lower than the 1981-2010 average: 14.2 degrees versus 14.6 degrees.   September 2016 ended a nine month streak of above average monthly temperatures at Victoria Gonzales: it was the first month since November 2015 to be below normal temperature.  While September was a bit cooler than the average for the past 30 years, if you look at the past 119 Septembers at Victoria Gonzales, this month's temperature falls almost exactly middle of the pack (i.e. the median).  The average daily max and min temperature this September was 17.6/10.6.  The average max temperature was about one degree below normal, but the average min temperature was right on the normal.  The highest temperature for the month was 22.9 on the 13th while the lowest was 6.6 on the 30th.  At the Victoria Airport, the mean temperature was 14.3, which was slightly higher than the 30-year average of 14.1.

A look back at summer 2016

Now that August is over, meteorological summer (June, July, and August) is also over.  Summer 2016 started out a little more unsettled than usual in Victoria, but in the end it turned out to be very nice.

At Victoria Gonzales, there was a total of 41 mm of rain during June, July, and August.  That's a little drier than the 50 mm that Victoria receives on average during the summer, but nothing unusual.  In fact, about 40% of the summers at Victoria Gonzales over the past 118 years have been drier, with the driest summer (1970) receiving just 10.5 mm of rain during June, July, and August.  While this June was a little wetter than normal, July and August were both a little drier.  There were 15 days with measurable precipitation during the summer, which is right on average.

The chart below shows daily rainfall during summer 2016, and compares the cumulative rainfall with the 30-year average.  You can see that June and the first week in July was generally a little wetter than average, but then it was very dry until the last few days in August.  From July 10 to August 27, there was a seven week stretch with just one day and only 1 mm of rain, and from July 23 to August 27, there was a 36-day period with no measurable precipitation.  That's a little longer than the typical drought period that Victoria receives each summer, which averages 28 days.

Daily and cumulative rainfall, 2016 vs 30-year average

The chart below compares Victoria's rainfall during summer 2016 with a number of other locations.  Compared with Victoria Gonzales' 42 mm, the Victoria Airport actually received slightly less rain, at 38 mm.  In Vancouver, there was 105 mm at the Airport and 156 mm downtown at the Harbour (so nearly four times as much rain as Victoria).  Up-Island also had more rain than Victoria, with 115 mm at Nanaimo and 95 mm at Comox.  Rainfall in Seattle was closest to Victoria, although there was still nearly twice as much, with 68 mm.  Finally, I have included Toronto's 133 mm.  There was a lot of coverage in the news about the drought affecting Southern Ontario, so this shows that everything's relative: even with one of the worst droughts in memory, Toronto still received more than three times as much rain as Victoria this summer.

Total rainfall, summer 2016

Now lets talk about temperatures.  The mean temperature for June, July, and August at Victoria Gonzales was 16.4 degrees, substantially higher than the 30-year average of 15.6.  In fact, summer 2016 was the 6th warmest in 119 years of record-keeping at Gonzales.  (Last year's summer, at 16.9 degrees, was the warmest on record.)  June's mean temperature of 15.5 degrees was 1.0 degrees above normal, while July's mean of 16.1 degrees was right on normal.  It was August when things really heated up: the mean temperature of 17.5 was 1.2 degrees above normal and just 0.1 degrees below the all time record.  In fact, at the Victoria Airport it was the hottest August on record.

The chart below shows the daily maximum and minimum temperatures at Victoria Gonzales during summer 2016, compared with the 30-year averages.  You can see that there were spikes of above average temperatures in June and again in August, while temperatures in July stayed very close to the average.  The warmest temperature of the summer was 33.1 degrees on August 19.

Daily maximum and minimum temperatures at Victoria Gonzales , summer 2016

A dry and very warm August

August in Victoria was drier and much warmer than normal.

After experiencing very average temperatures in July, Victoria was much warmer in August.  The mean temperature for the month was 17.5 degrees, making it the second warmest August on record at Victoria Gonzales, just a sliver behind the record of 17.6 degrees in 1997.  The Victoria Airport set a new record for the warmest August in 2016, with a mean temperature of 18.3 degrees, beating the old record of 18.1 set in 2004.  Since the beginning of 2014, 29 of the past 32 months have been warmer than the long term average in Victoria.

The chart below compares the daily high and low temperatures with the averages for August.  Temperatures fluctuated between being close to average and being well above average.  The warmest temperature during the month was 33.1 degrees on August 19th.  That was not only a record for the date, but it was the warmest temperature ever recorded at Gonzales for any day after August 15.  Heat waves like that are rarer in the second half of August than they are earlier in the summer.

Daily maximum and minimum temperatures, August 2016

For most of the month, August was very dry, with no measurable rainfall until the 28th.  Victoria then received 7.2 mm during the last four days of the month.  That was still well below the normal of 18.6 mm for the month, but not usually so: in the past 119 years, Victoria Gonzales has had less than 7.2 mm during August 28 times, or about one quarter of the time.

The chart below compares daily and cumulative rainfall in August 2016 with the average cumulative rainfall for August.  You can clearly see how most of the month was very dry and well below the average.

Daily and cumulative rainfall, August 2016

While, on average, Victoria Gonzales is the driest location in the region, this August there was actually less rain at the Airport: 3.2 mm vs. 7.2 mm.  It was generally dry at other nearby locations, though not quite so dry as Victoria.  In Vancouver, there was 13.8 mm at the Airport and 12.5 mm downtown at the Harbour.  Up-Island, there was 20.8 mm at Nanaimo and 26.1 mm at Comox.  In Seattle, there was just 4.3 mm of rain during August.

Which has a better climate - Victoria or Calgary

Our climate smackdown series continues.  We have already compared Victoria's climate with Vancouver and Toronto.  This time we'll look at Calgary.  

Let's start with precipitation.  On an annual basis, Calgary gets about 35%  less precipitation than Victoria - 419 mm in Calgary versus 641 mm in Victoria.    If you split that into rain and snow, Calgary gets barely half as much rain as Victoria (326 mm vs. 621 mm) but Calgary gets about six and a half times as much snow (129 cm vs. 20 cm).  

Calgary also greatly differs from Victoria in the seasonal pattern of its precipitation.  Victoria gets most of its rain in late fall and winter, while the late spring and summer is very dry.  In Calgary, the precipitation pattern is the opposite of this, with a very dry late fall and winter, but a decidedly wet late spring and summer.  You can see the difference in the chart below.  The driest six months in Victoria occur during the growing season, from April to September, with a total of just 137 mm, or 21% of the annual total during that period.  By contrast, April to September are the wettest six months of the year in Calgary, with 344 mm or about 82% of the annual total (and two and half times as much rain as Victoria gets during the growing season).   During Victoria's wettest months, in November, December, and January, it gets about ten times as much precipitation as Calgary, but during the dry summer months of June, July, and August, Calgary gets four to five times as much rain as Victoria.  While Victoria gets more annual precipitation than Calgary, Victoria, on average, is drier than Calgary during five months; May, June, July, August, and September,  One of the big reasons for the much drier summers in Victoria is the lack of thunderstorms: Calgary averages about 27 days annually with thunderstorms - nearly all between May and August - compared with about one day per year in Victoria.

We can also compare the frequency of precipitation.  For example, Victoria averages 133 days per year with measurable precipitation versus 112 days in Calgary. The chart below compares the % chance of measurable precipitation on any given day throughout the year.  There is much more seasonal variation in Victoria, ranging from 60% chance during November and December to a 10% chance in late July and early August.  The likelihood of precipitation has a smaller seasonal range in Calgary, from about 20% in November and December up to about 45% in June.  The chance of having a day with measurable rainfall is lower in Victoria from late April until mid-September.  From late-July until mid-August, Calgary is more than three times as likely as Victoria to get a rainy day.  During November and December, the reverse is true, with Victoria about three times as likely to get a day with precipitation compared with Calgary.

As noted earlier, Calgary gets more than 6 times as much snow as Victoria, with an average 129 cm annually in Calgary versus 20 cm in Victoria.  Snow also stays on the ground much longer in Calgary, with an average of 86 days each winter with at least 1 cm of snow on the ground compared with 5 days for Victoria.  Although on average, Victoria gets much less snow, it has had more really large snowfalls than Calgary.  The biggest one-day snowfall in  Calgary in the past 100 years was 48 cm in May 1981.  In Victoria, there have been three one-day snowfalls that exceeded 50 cm, in February 1916, February 1923, and December 1996.  

Calgary does beat Victoria in terms of sunshine, with an average 2,396 hours of sunshine annually, nearly 9% more sunshine than Victoria's 2,203 hours.  Victoria averages 315 days per year with at least some measurable sunshine; Calgary gets 333 such days.  Looking at the flip side, Victoria averages 50 days each year with no measurable sunshine while Calgary averages just 32 such days.  While Calgary gets more sunshine than Victoria on an annual basis, there are some important seasonal variations, as was the case with precipitation.  The chart below shows the % of possible sunshine, by month, throughout the year.  Victoria gets a much lower percentage of possible sunshine than Calgary during the winter months.  In December, for example, Victoria gets just 26% of possible sunshine hours while Calgary gets 46%.  However, from May through September Victoria gets a higher percentage of possible sunshine than Calgary.  Victoria's summer sunshine advantage peaks in July,  when it's sunny 69% of the time in Victoria compared with about 63% in Calgary. 

Now let's compare temperature.  Calgary, of course, has much colder winters, and it also has a  much greater seasonal variation in temperature compared with Victoria.  The chart below shows the average daily maximum temperature in Victoria versus Calgary.   Average maximum temperatures in Victoria range from 7 degrees in December to 21 degrees in July - a difference of about 14 degrees.   In contrast, maximum temperatures in Calgary range from -4 degrees in January to 25 degrees in July - a range of 29 degrees, or more than twice the range experienced in Victoria.  The average daily maximum temperature is warmer in Victoria from the beginning of September until mid-May.  The greatest difference is in  late January, when the average daily maximum is nearly 12 degrees warmer in Victoria compared with Calgary.  In contrast, in July the average daily maximum temperature is 3.5 degrees cooler in Victoria compared with Calgary.  (It should be noted that the numbers for Victoria are based on Victoria Gonzales, located right on the Strait of Juan de Fuca.  Away from the Strait, at the University of Victoria, the average high temperature in July is 23.8 degrees, nearly 3 degrees warmer than Gonzales and about the same as Calgary).  

The record maximum  temperature for Victoria is 36.0 degrees versus 36.1 degrees for Calgary.  Calgary gets an average of 87 days per year above 20 degrees and 5 days above 30 degrees.  In contrast, Victoria gets an average of just 50 days per year above 20 degrees and 1 day per year above 30 degrees.  Again, if you measure the temperature away from the Strait of Juan de Fuca (at the University of Victoria), it's more like 95 days above 20 degrees and 3 days above 30 degrees.  

The next chart shows average daily overnight low temperatures in Victoria versus Calgary.  Compared with Victoria, average overnight lows are cooler in Calgary throughout the year.  However, there is a much greater seasonal variation in Calgary, so there is a much greater difference between Victoria and Calgary in the winter.  Overnight temperatures range from about 3 degrees cooler than Victoria in the summer down to nearly 20 degrees colder than Victoria in the winter.  In Calgary, average overnight lows are below 0 from the mid-October until the end of April, and Calgary averages a whopping 194 days per year with overnight lows below freezing.  Victoria averages less than 10 such "frost days" per year.  

The coldest temperature ever recorded in Victoria was -15.6 degrees in December 1968.  On the other hand, Victoria has experienced 7 winters in the past 118 years when the temperature did not drop below freezing.  The coldest temperature recorded during the winter of 1925-26 was +1.1 degrees, making it the highest low temperature for any winter on record.  In Calgary, the lowest temperature ever recorded was -45 degrees.  The highest low temperature for any winter in Calgary was -22 degrees during the winter of 1986/87.  In Victoria, the average coldest temperature each winter is -4.8 degrees, while the average winter low temperature for Calgary is -34 degrees.  

So who wins the climate smackdown?  I think Victoria clearly wins in terms of temperatures.  While summer high temperatures are a little cooler in Victoria (at least near the water), Calgary is much colder in the winter, and overnight temperatures are colder in Calgary throughout the year.  On an annual basis, Calgary is drier and sunnier than Victoria (although Calgary gets much more snow).  However, during the warmer late-spring and summer months, Victoria actually gets less rain and more sunshine than Calgary.  While Victoria is much wetter and cloudier during the winter months compared with Calgary, it is also much warmer.  While the definition of best climate is subjective, I think Victoria wins this showdown: it has a sunnier, drier summer than Calgary and, in my opinion, a cloudier and wetter winter is a worthwhile trade-off for Victoria's much milder winter temperatures, 

Victoria's advantage when the weather is unsettled

We're currently into a perfect stretch of warm, dry and sunny summer weather: take a look at the forecast for Victoria for the next week.

However, it seems like earlier in the summer the weather was a bit more unsettled than usual, especially in June and the first half of July.  While we might complain when the weather's not perfect in the summer, we should remember that compared with other locations in the region, Victoria's weather actually stands out the most when the weather pattern is a bit more unsettled.  When we have a strong ridge of high pressure giving us the sunny weather we're currently experiencing, other parts of the B.C. south coast are usually experiencing similar conditions.  It's when the weather's unsettled that Victoria's climate really shines.  Unsettled weather during the summer might mean a little more cloud and a chance of sprinkles in Victoria, while in other parts of the region they are getting much more cloud and rain.

Let's start by comparing the rainfall in Victoria and Vancouver this summer.  The chart below compares monthly rainfall from May up until today (August 14) at Victoria Gonzales and Vancouver Harbour (downtown).  You can see that Vancouver has clearly had a LOT more rain.

Summer 2016 Monthly Rainfall, Victoria vs. Vancouver

On average, Vancouver gets about three times as much rainfall from May to August than Victoria (240 mm vs. 80 mm).  This year, Vancouver has had five times as much rain as Victoria (224 mm vs 45 mm).

The chart below compares the total May-August 2016 rainfall (up to August 14) at Victoria Gonzales with several other  locations in the region.  Although the Victoria Airport usually gets about 35-40% more rain than Victoria Gonzales during the summer, this year it's been almost as dry.  However, Vancouver Airport (located in a relatively dry part of the Vancouver region) has had more than three times as much rain as Victoria, and as we've seen, Vancouver Harbour has seen five times as much rain.  Nanaimo, Comox, and Campbell River - which normally get about twice as much rain as Victoria during the summer - have received nearly three times as much rain as Victoria this summer. Finally, Seattle Airport - which normally gets about 60% more rain than Victoria during the summer - has received about double Victoria's rainfall this summer.

Total Rainfall, May to August 2016

So during this somewhat unsettled summer, other locations in the region have received even more rain relative to Victoria than they normally do.  We might grumble sometimes when we get a patch of unsettled weather in the summer instead of the endless sunny days that we expect, but we should keep in mind that when it's unsettled here in Victoria, it's probably still a lot better weather than other parts of the region.

While we're talking about the rainfall amounts this summer, I'd just like to comment on another case of it all being relative.  We've heard in the news that Southern Ontario is experiencing a severe drought this summer.  In Toronto, they have received just 45% of their normal rainfall since the beginning of May.  Sounds pretty dry, doesn't it?  The thing is, normal May-August rainfall in Toronto is 300 mm, so 45% of that is 135 mm - or about three times as much rain as Victoria has seen over the same period.  For Victoria, 135 mm of rain during May to August would be an unusually wet summer, and certainly wouldn't be considered a severe drought!  In fact, in 117 years of record-keeping at Victoria Gonzales, there have only been five summers where our rainfall totals have reached 135 mm.  As I said, it's all relative!

BC Day - the most reliable weather of the year in Victoria

I'm continuing my look at average weather on major holidays in Victoria.  We last looked at Canada Day - next up is BC Day.

BC Day doesn't fall on a specific day - it is the first Monday in August.  That means, it can fall anywhere from August 1 to 7.  For the purposes of this discussion, I will use the weather averages for August 1-7.  This period is right in the middle of the driest, sunniest, and warmest time of year in Victoria (which generally extends from mid-July to mid-August).  

Looking at the 1981-2010 period, there is just a 9.1% chance of measurable rain on BC Day.  By comparison, the chance of rain is 14.4% on Canada and 20.0% on Labor Day, so the BC Day long weekend is definitely the most reliable for camping or other outdoor activities.  In fact, Victoria's weather on BC Day is more reliably dry than any other city in Canada.  The chance of measurable rain on BC Day is nearly twice as high in Vancouver (16.7%), and nearly four times as high in Calgary (33.2%) and Toronto (33.3%).

BC Day is also generally the sunniest holiday in Victoria.  There is a 97.3% chance of getting measurable sunshine on BC Day in Victoria.  On average Victoria gets 10.5 hours of sunshine on BC Day, meaning that it is sunny about 72% of daylight hours.  That compares with 9.3 hours (60% of possible) on Canada Day.  While that's impressive, BC Day actually just misses the sunniest time of year in Victoria: during the last 10 days of July there is an average of 12.1 daily hours of sun, meaning it is sunny 81% of daylight hours during this period.  Again, Victoria is more reliably sunny on BC Day than other major cities across Canada.  While Victoria gets 72% of possible sunshine on BC Day, Vancouver and Calgary both average 63% and Toronto averages 58%.  Even Penticton in the "sunny Okanagan" averages just 62% of possible sunshine on BC Day.

The average high and low temperature for BC Day at Victoria Gonzales is 20.6/11.9 degrees, making it the warmest holiday of the year.  The warmest it's been during the first week of August is 32.8 degrees on August 6, 1942 (which was also the year Victoria had its hottest Canada Day on record).  The temperature gets above 20 degrees about half the time during the first week in August at Victoria Gonzales.  It's a different story if you  move inland in the Victoria region: at the University of Victoria, the average temperature during the first week in August is 24.0 degrees, and it gets above 20 degrees nearly 90% of the time during the first week in August, and above 25 degrees nearly 40% of the time.

A fairly typical July

This past July turned out to be pretty typical in Victoria.

The mean temperature for the month was 16.1 degrees, which is right on the 30-year average.  If you go to 2 decimal points, the mean temperature was 16.10 versus the average of 16.07, so we did continue our streak of above average temperatures, albeit by a very small margin!  Since the beginning of 2014, 28 of the past 31 months have been warmer than the long term average.

I was a little surprised when I saw the stats for July, because it seemed to me like it was a little cooler than normal.  That may be because, while the mean temperature was bang on normal, the average daily high temperature was a little below normal (20.1 versus 20.4) while the average daily low temperature was slightly above normal (12.1 versus 11.7).  In addition, we didn't get any really hot weather during July, at least at Victoria Gonzales.  The warmest temperature this month at Gonzales was 23.1 degrees on July 21.  On average, the warmest temperature during July is usually around 28 degrees.  Victoria Airport also saw close to average temperatures in July, although the highest temperature for the month was a warmer 27.0 degrees, also on July 21.

The chart below compares the daily high and low temperatures with the averages for July.  You can see that the temperatures stayed very close to average throughout the month, with no big swings above or below the averages.

Daily Max and Min temperatures, July 2016

July was drier than average, with 8.0 mm of rain at Victoria Gonzales compared with the normal of 12.6 mm.  However, that's not an unusually low amount for Victoria -  there's been less than 8 mm of rain during more than 4 in 10 July's over the past 100 years.  There were five days with measurable precipitation in July, which is pretty typical for Victoria.  The wettest day was July 7th, with 2.8 mm of rain.

As is typical, Victoria Gonzales received less rain in July than other locations in the region.  Compared with 8 mm at Gonzales, the Victoria Airport received 13.6 mm.  In Vancouver, there was 32.8 mm at the Airport and 59.2 mm downtown at the Harbour.  The Seattle Airport received 18.3 mm.  In Nanaimo, there was 34.0 mm of rain

The chart below compares daily and cumulative rainfall in July 2016 with the average cumulative rainfall for July.  While we ended up the month with a little less rain than average, it was actually quite typical.

Daily and Cumulative Rainfall, July 2016

Holiday weather - Canada Day

I thought I would start a series looking at the typical weather in Victoria for various holidays.  First up is Canada - July 1.

While Canada Day doesn't quite fall in the very driest time of year in Victoria (which begins about a week or so later), it is still quite dry.  We actually had a few light sprinkles on Canada Day this year (2016), but there was no measurable rainfall at Victoria Gonzales.  If you look at the full period of record at Gonzales, going back to 1898, there has been measurable precipitation on 14.4% of those years.  More recently, it's been even drier on Canada Day: in the last 22 Canada Days going back to 1995, there has only been measurable rainfall once, when 0.8 mm fell on Canada Day 2010.  That works out to a 4.5% chance.  When it has rained on Canada Day, amounts have generally been light, and the average precipitation for the day (including all those years with no rain) is just 0.3 mm.  The most rain ever recorded on July 1 in Victoria was 8.6 mm in 1933.

Our neighbors to the north in Vancouver don't fare nearly so well when it comes to having a dry Canada Day.  The chance of having measurable rainfall on July 1 in Vancouver is 32% and the average amount of rainfall 3.1 mm - ten times as much as Victoria.  Even if you just look at the 1995-2016 period, which has been so dry on Canada Day in Victoria, it has been much wetter in Vancouver, with measurable rainfall on 8 of those 22 years.

There's a much better chance of having measurable sunshine in Victoria on Canada Day than having measurable rain.  During the period from 1951-1988, there was measurable sunshine on Canada Day 89% of the time.  That's actually quite low compared with other days nearby in the calendar: during that same period, every June 30 had measurable sunshine (100%) while on July 2 there was measurable sunshine 97% of the time.  The average amount of sunshine on Canada Day is 9.3 hours, or about 60% of the 15.6 hours that's possible for that date.

The average high and low temperature for Canada Day at Victoria Gonzales is 19.4/10.8 degrees.  The warmest July 1 was 1942 when the temperature hit a sweltering 33.9 degrees.  The coolest was 1979 when the temperature topped out at a very chilly 13.0 degrees.  The temperature gets above 20 degrees at Victoria Gonzales on only about one third of Canada Days.  It's a different story if you  move inland in the Victoria region: at the University of Victoria, the average temperature on July 1 is 22.9 degrees, and it gets above 20 degrees nearly 80% of the time on Canada Day.

The Year So Far

We've completed six months of 2016, so I thought it would be worthwhile to take a look at the weather in Victoria so far this year.

In terms of temperature, this has been a record warm start to the year.  Last year (2015) was the warmest year on record at Victoria Gonzales, and the first six months of 2015 were also the warmest ever recorded (10.8 degrees).  In 2016, we have beat that record, with a mean temperature of 10.9 degrees for the first six months of the year.  Every month so far in 2016 has been above normal temperatures.  Will we beat 2015 the the whole year record?  Probably not.  July 2016 is so far looking to be much cooler than last July, and with La Nina looming, the end of the year may also be cooler.

The chart below compares daily high and low temperatures with the 30-year averages.  You can clearly see that temperatures have been pretty consistently above average, although we've had a few short stretches of average or slightly below average temperatures in late May and into June.

Daily High and Low Temperatures, January to June 2016

Things are a bit closer to normal when we look at precipitation.  In the first six months of 2016 we have had 261 mm of rain, compared with the normal of 296 mm.  Incredibly, nearly one quarter of the year's rain so far this year fell on a single day - February 15 - when we had a record-breaking deluge of 62 mm.  Without that one day, we would be under 200 mm for the year so far.

The chart below shows daily and cumulative rainfall at Victoria Gonzales for the first six months of 2016.  You can see that we have generally trended below average for most of the year.  You can also see that incredible deluge that we had on February 15.

Daily and Cumulative Rainfall, January to June 2016

Mixed weather in June

After a string of months with warmer and drier than normal weather in Victoria, things were a bit more mixed in June.

The mean temperature for the month was 15.5 degrees, 1.0 degrees above the 30-year average of 14.5 degrees.  The average daily high/low at Victoria Gonzales was 19.7/11.2, again above the average of 18.5/10.4.

The chart below compares the daily high and low temperatures with the averages for June.  The warmest weather of the month was during the first week of June, with temperatures topping out at 30.2 degrees on June 5.  Only about one in five Junes at Victoria Gonzales sees the maximum temperature exceed 30 degrees, so that is relatively uncommon, especially for early June.  The rest of the month was pretty close to average.

Daily High & Low Temperatures at Victoria Gonzales, June 2016

After a dry April and May, precipitation in June was a bit above average, with 26.3 mm compared with the normal 20 mm.  There were 8 days with measurable precipitation in June, slightly above the average of 7 days.  The greatest amount was 9.4 mm that fell on June 15.

While the Victoria Airport typically gets more rain than Gonzales, this June it actually received slightly less - about 24 mm vs. 26 mm at Gonzales.  In Vancouver, there was 58.2 mm at the Airport and 84.1 mm downtown at the Harbour.

The chart below compares daily and cumulative rainfall in June 2016 with the average cumulative rainfall for June.

Daily & Cumulative Rainfall at Victoria Gonzales, June 2016

May was another warm month

After a record warm April in Victoria, our warm streak continued in May.  The mean temperature of 14.1 degrees was just shy of the record (14.2), set back in 2005.  The 30-year normal temperature for May at Victoria Gonzales is 12.3 degrees.  The average daily high/low temperatures this May were 18.3/9.9 compared with the normal of 16.2/8.4.  May was even warmer at the Victoria Airport, with a mean temperature of 14.4 degrees.  This made May 2016 the warmest on record at the Airport, following the warmest April on record.  It's pretty rare to get back-to-back monthly temperature records!  The average daily high/low temperatures at the Airport were 19.7/9.1 - more like June than May.

The chart below compares the daily high and low temperatures this May at Victoria Gonzales compared with the 30-year average.  You can see that temperatures were well above average during the first half of the month.  Temperatures were closer to average in the second half of the month, although there was a spike on May 31.

Daily High & Low Temperatures at Victoria Gonzales, May 2016

May was also dry, with just 10.4 mm of rain in Victoria, compared with the normal of 28.6 mm.  By comparison, there was 12.8 mm of rain at the Victoria Airport, 51.6 mm at the Vancouver Airport, and 76.6 mm at Vancouver Harbour.

The chart below shows daily and cumulative rainfall (red line) compared with the average cumulative rainfall (blue line) at Victoria Gonzales for May 2016.  Clearly, it was much drier than average.  Nearly three quarters of the month's rainfall fell on one day - May 28.

Daily and Cumulative Rainfall at Victoria Gonzales, May 2016

With the mild temperatures in March, followed by record or near record temperatures in April and May, Spring 2016 was the warmest on record at both Victoria Gonzales and at the Airport.  At Gonzales the mean temperature was 11.9 degrees compared with the average of 10.1.  Average high/low temperatures at Victoria Gonzales were 15.4/8.3 compared with the normal spring high/low of   13.5/6.5.

How long will this string of warmer than average temperatures last?  Perhaps not much longer since El Nino is now dead and there is a La Nina on the horizon.

A record-breaking April

Our streak of warmer than average months continued in a big way in April - it was the warmest April on record in Victoria.  The mean temperature at Victoria Gonzales was 12.4 degrees, easily beating the old record of 12.1 degrees set back in April 2004, and well above the 30-year average of 9.9 degrees.  The temperatures this April were more like May - in fact the mean temperature equaled the 30-year average for May.  The average daily maximum and minimum temperatures were 15.9/8.8 vs. the April normal 13.4/6.3.   The warmest temperature was 25.5 degrees on April 20 (close to the all time April maximum of 27.0).  The coolest temperature was 7.1 degrees on April 9.  That is the warmest extreme monthly minimum ever recorded for April.

The chart below compares the daily maximum and minimum temperatures for April with the 30-year average temperatures.  Maximum temperatures cycled between being close to average and being well above average.  The overnight minimum temperatures were consistently above average.

Daily maximum and minimum temperatures, April 2016

The warmth wasn't limited to Victoria Gonzales.  April 2016 was also the warmest on record at the Victoria Airport, as well as in Vancouver, Seattle, and Portland.

April was also much drier than normal, with just 8.8 mm of rain at Victoria Gonzales, compared with the 30-year average of 31.5 mm.  There was measurable rainfall on 7 days in April compared with the normal of 11 days.

The chart below shows the daily and cumulative rainfall at Victoria Gonzales for April 2016.  Clearly, it was much drier than normal.

Daily and cumulative precipitation, April 2016

It was generally dry throughout the region in April, although, as is typical, other areas did get more rain than Victoria.  The chart below compares April rainfall totals.  Compared with 8.8 mm at Victoria Gonzales, amounts at the Victoria Airport were quite similar (10.4 mm).  Somewhat higher amounts were recorded at Saltspring Island (24.1 mm), Vancouver Harbour (26.3 mm) and Seattle Airport (30.2 mm).

Which has a better climate - Victoria or Toronto?

Our climate smackdown series continues.  Next we'll compare Victoria's climate to Toronto's.  All the numbers below are based on stats for Victoria Gonzales and for Toronto City (not Airport numbers).  

Let's start with precipitation.  On an annual basis, Toronto gets about 30%  more precipitation than Victoria - 831 mm in Toronto versus 641 mm in Victoria.    If you split that into rain and snow, Toronto gets about 20% more rain than Victoria (741 mm vs. 621 mm) and about 6 times as much snow (122 cm vs. 20 cm).  

Besides getting more precipitation, Toronto also differs from Victoria in the seasonal pattern of its precipitation.  While Victoria has a very distinct rainy season (late fall and winter) and dry season (late spring and summer), precipitation in Toronto is more or less the same year round.  You can see the difference in the chart below.  Victoria gets about 50% more precipitation than Toronto in November, December, and January (318 mm vs. 207 mm).  Precipitation levels are about the same in both cities during the transitional months of February and March, and again in October. During the six months from April to September, Victoria gets less than one third as much rain as Toronto (137 mm vs. 451 mm).  The difference is particularly pronounced during June, July, and August when Victoria gets less than one quarter as much rain as Toronto.  One of the big reasons for the much drier summers is the lack of thunderstorms in Victoria: Toronto averages about 28 days annually with thunderstorms compared with about one day in Victoria.

We can also compare the frequency of precipitation.  For example, Victoria averages 133 days per year with measurable precipitation versus 145 days in Toronto. The chart below compares the % chance of measurable precipitation on any given day throughout the year.  Again, you can see there is much more seasonal variation in Victoria, ranging from 60% chance during November and December to a 10% chance in late July and early August.  The likelihood of precipitation has a much smaller seasonal range in Toronto, from about 50% in the winter down to about 30% in late summer.  The chance of having a day with measurable rainfall is lower in Victoria from early April until early October.  The gap is especially wide from mid-July until mid-August: if you're planning an outdoor event at this time of year it's about three times as likely to get rained out in Toronto compared with Victoria. 

As noted earlier, Toronto gets more than 6 times as much snow as Victoria, with an average 122 cm annually in Toronto versus 20 cm in Victoria.  Snow also stays on the ground much longer in Toronto, with an average of 68 days each winter with at least 1 cm of snow on the ground compared with 5 days for Victoria.  Although on average, Victoria gets much less snow, it has had more really large snowfalls than Toronto.  The biggest one-day snowfall in Toronto in the past 100 years was 48 cm in December 1943.  In Victoria, there have been three one-day snowfalls that exceeded 50 cm, in February 1916, February 1923, and December 1996.  

Victoria is also sunnier than Toronto, with an average 2,203 hours of sunshine annually versus 2,066 hours for Toronto.  Victoria averages 315 days per year with at least some measurable sunshine, leaving an average 50 days per year with no sun.  Toronto averages 60 days annually with no measurable sunshine.  The chart below shows the % of possible sunshine, by month, throughout the year.  Victoria gets a slightly lower percentage of possible sunshine than Toronto during the winter, from December until March.  However, from April to October Victoria gets a higher percentage of possible sunshine.  The difference is especially noticeable in July and August, when it's sunny nearly 70% of the time in Victoria compared with about 58% in Toronto. 

Now let's compare temperature.  While Victoria has  much greater seasonal variation in precipitation and sunshine compared with Toronto, the opposite is true for temperature.  The chart below shows the average daily maximum temperature in Victoria versus Toronto.   Average maximum temperatures in Victoria range from 7 degrees in December to 21 degrees in July - a difference of about 14 degrees.   In contrast, maximum temperatures in Toronto range from -2 degrees in January to 27 degrees in July - a range of 29 degrees, or more than twice the range experienced in Victoria.  The average daily maximum temperature is warmer in Victoria for half the year, from mid-April to mid-October.  The greatest difference is in mid-January, when the average daily maximum is nearly 10 degrees warmer in Victoria compared with Toronto.  In contrast, in July the average daily maximum temperature is 6 degrees cooler in Victoria compared with Toronto.  (It should be noted that the numbers for Victoria are based on Victoria Gonzales, located right on the Strait of Juan de Fuca.  Away from the Strait, at the University of Victoria, the average high temperature in July is 23.8 degrees, nearly 3 degrees warmer than Gonzales).  

The next chart shows average daily overnight low temperatures in Victoria versus Toronto.  The pattern is very similar to the daily high temperatures discussed above: there is a much greater seasonal range in Toronto, with average overnight lows ranging from -8 degrees in January to nearly 19 degrees in July (a 27 degree range).  In Victoria, overnight lows range from 3 degrees in December to 12 degrees in August (a 9 degree range, only one third of the range in Toronto).  Average overnight lows in Victoria exceed those in Toronto for an even longer period than the daytime highs do, from early October to early May.  In Toronto, average overnight lows are below 0 from the beginning of December to the end of March, and Toronto averages 101 days per year with overnight lows below freezing.  Victoria averages less than 10 such "frost days" per year.  

The coldest temperature ever recorded in Victoria was -15.6 degrees in December 1968.  On the other hand, Victoria has experienced 7 winters in the past 118 years when the temperature did not drop below freezing.  The coldest temperature recorded during the winter of 1925-26 was +1.1 degrees, making it the highest low temperature for any winter on record.  In Toronto, the lowest temperature ever recorded was -32.8 degrees.  The highest low temperature for any winter in Toronto was -13.1 degrees during the winter of 2005/06.  In Victoria, the average coldest temperature each winter is -4.8 degrees, while the average winter low temperature for Toronto is -20 degrees.  

The record maximum  temperature for Victoria is 36.0 degrees versus 40.6 degrees for Toronto.  Toronto gets an average of 50 days per year above 25 degrees and 13 days above 30 degrees.  In contrast, Victoria gets an average of just 8 days per year above 25 degrees and 1 day per year above 30 degrees.  Again, if you measure the temperature away from the Strait of Juan de Fuca (at the University of Victoria), it's more like 27 days above 25 degrees and 3 days above 30 degrees.  Either way, Victoria's summers are much cooler than Toronto's - and no humidity!

So who wins the climate smackdown?  I think it's pretty clear that Victoria wins in terms of more sunshine, less rain, and much less snow.  It also wins for having much milder winters.  However, the summer temperatures are more subjective.  Being a Victoria native, I love the cool summers here, but I know that some people prefer the heat in the summer.  Give me cool, dry and sunny over hot and muggy any day, although it would be nice to have a few more warmer summer evenings in Victoria!  Overall, I still have to give this one to Victoria.

A mild February that was both wet and dry

It was a mild February in Victoria, with a mean temperature of 8.0 degrees, compared with the 30-year February average temperature of 6.5 degrees.  That makes it the 4th warmest February on record at Victoria Gonzales (with 118 years of record-keeping), behind 2015 (which was a record-shattering 8.9 degrees), 1998 (8.2 degrees), and 1963 (8.1 degrees).  The average daily maximum and minimum temperatures this February were 10.4 and 5.6 degrees.  The warmest temperature was 14 degrees on February 9 and the coolest was 3 degrees on February 1.  There were 15 days when the temperature topped 10 degrees, compared with the average of 8.9 days.  Last February, the temperature topped 10 degrees on 21 days.

The above normal temperatures in February continued the trend of the past couple of years.  Since the beginning of 2014, 23 of the past 26 months have been warmer than the 30-year average.

The chart below compares the daily maximum and minimum temperatures in February 2016 with the 30-year averages for those dates.  Clearly, most of the month experienced above average temperatures, except for a short period around February 20-21.

Daily Maximum & Minimum Temperatures, February 2016

February 2016 was undoubtedly wet: total rainfall was 112 mm, nearly  double the average February precipitation of 61 mm, and there were 22 days with measurable rain compared with the average 13 days.  However, more than half of February’s rainfall fell on just one day, the 15^th.  As I discussed here, the rainfall that day was exceptional, the most at Victoria Gonzales in one day since 2006.  If you remove that day, rainfall during the rest of the month was actually a bit below average, although the number of days with rainfall was still higher than normal.  The chart below shows the daily and cumulative rainfall in February compare with the 30-year average.  You can see the impact of the February 15^th deluge. 

Daily & Cumulative Rainfall, February 2016

While Victoria was much drier than surrounding areas in January, the difference was not quite so great in February (again thanks to all that rain on the 15^th).   The table below compares February 2016 rainfall in several locations around the region.  Rainfall at Victoria Gonzales was very similar to Victoria Airport in February 2016 – whereas normally the Airport gets 46% more precipitation in February.  Victoria still got less rain than Nanaimo, Vancouver, or Seattle, but the difference wasn’t as great as usual. 

There was no snow during February 2016, and none since the 1 cm dusting we received in November 2014.  We haven't had significant snow on the ground since January 2012.  Normal snowfall for February is 3.6 cm, although Victoria has received measurable snowfall in February only a little over one third of the time over the last 30 years.

A very rainy day in Victoria!

Up until Sunday, it had been a dry start to the year, with just 81 mm since January 1, compared with our normal of 134 mm in the first 45 days of the year.  Then came yesterday (February 15) - what a very rainy day!  There was 61.6 mm of rain recorded at Victoria Gonzales.    Average rainfall for the entire month of February is 61 mm, so that's a month's worth of rain in one day.  It was also far more than the 47 mm of rain we had in the entire month of January 2016, even though we had 20 days with measurable precipitation during that month.  Yesterday's rainfall was quite rare for Victoria.  It certainly blew away the old record for the date of 28.2 mm of rain back in 1949.  It was the most rain recorded at Victoria Gonzales in a single day since since November 6, 2006 - more than 9 years ago.  It was also the second rainiest February day ever recorded at Victoria Gonzales in more than 117 years of recording-keeping, and the 17th rainiest day ever recorded in any month!  On average, Victoria gets a day like yesterday with more than 60 mm of rain only once ever 7 years.

As the chart below shows, yesterday's rain completely closed the rain deficit we'd had so far this year.  The blue line shows the 30-year average rainfall to date while the red line shows the cumulative total rainfall for 2016.  You can see that we've been well below average so far this year, but with yesterday's deluge, we have jumped to just above average.  The green bars show the daily rainfall amounts, and you can see how much rainier yesterday was compared with any other day this year.

Why did we get so much rain?  There were two factors.  The first was an atmospheric river or "pineapple express" carrying subtropical moisture directly to our area.  Usually during a pineapple express, as the moisture streams in from the southwest, Victoria is protected by the rain shadow of the Olympic Mountains, and our rainfall totals are a lot less than areas to the north and west of us.  However, this pineapple express, rather than coming from the southwest, was coming from a more westerly direction.  When that happens, the rain shadow shifts from being northeast of the Olympics (and usually including Victoria) to be more east of the Olympics (giving more protection to Seattle).  Westerly flows are often when Victoria will get it's heaviest rainfall.   When I saw in the forecast on Sunday that there was going to be an atmospheric river coming at us from the west, I expected we'd get more than our usual light showers!

Below is an interesting radar image from about noon yesterday.  Instead of being in the hole of the donut, as we often are, Victoria is right in the bulls eye!

February blahs? Not in Victoria!

You often hear the term February blahs, especially from people in other parts of Canada who are tired of the cold, snow and slush, and they know that they probably have a couple more months of winter to endure.  I think this is the time of year when I am most appreciative of living in Victoria.  This may not be the nicest time of year in Victoria, but compared with most of the rest of Canada, it is heaven.  (It was -26 degrees in Toronto this morning, although granted that is very cold even for them!)

versus

As I mentioned in this post, while February is still the depth of winter in many parts of Canada, the coldest and dreariest point of the winter in Victoria tends to happen quite early, around the end of December.  By February, the weather is noticeably warmer, drier, and sunnier.  The average high temperature in February in Victoria is 9 degrees, a degree warmer than January and nearly two degrees warmer than December.

February is also noticeably drier, with an average of just 61 mm of precipitation compared with more than 100 mm each month in November, December, and January - the end of the rainy season is definitely in sight!  On average, there is a 43% chance of measurable precipitation on any given day in February (compared with than 50% in November, December, and January).  As I've said before, I think looking at the % chance of rain on any given day somewhat overstates how rainy it is, since a day with measurable precipitation doesn't necessarily mean rain all day - it could be a brief shower.  Another way to look at at this is the % of hours with measurable precipitation, and for Victoria in February there is precipitation just 19% of the time.

The sun is also making more of an appearance, with 98 hours of sunshine in a typical February in Victoria.  That works out to an average of 3.5 hours per day, compared with only 2.3 hours per day in January and 2.0 hours per day in December.  On average, February gets 22 days with at least some measurable sunshine, and overall, it is sunny about 35% of the time (at least during daylight hours!).  In other words, during daylight hours it's actually more likely for the sun to be shining February (35% of the time) than it is to be raining (19% of the time).

Snow is also pretty rare in February in Victoria.  Over the past 30 years, only 11 Februarys have seen any snow at all and just 5 of the past 30 Februarys saw significant snowfall (more than 10 cm).  When it does snow, it melts quickly; Victoria averages just 0.7 days with snow on the ground during February.

The other nice thing about February is that it's springtime!  Crocuses, daffodils, and rhodos are blooming, and the cherry blossoms are out.  Sometimes when we have mild weather in February, they will also get warm weather in Southern Alberta, with temperatures in the teens.  While that must be a nice break from the cold and the snow, it's so much nicer to enjoy the mild weather here when there is greenery and flowers everywhere!  Here's a few photos I took last week (February 8) around Victoria:

Rhododendrons at Beacon Hill Park

Camelias

Irises

Even the bees are out

Finally, here is a link to a great video that really sums up how nice February can be in Victoria.