Summer 2024 was wetter than normal, but close to normal temperatures

Summer 2024 in Victoria saw close to normal temperatures, but more rainfall than any summer in the past 27 years.

The mean temperature this past summer at Victoria Gonzales was 15.7 degrees, which is exactly equal to the 30-year average.  Mean temperatures were below normal in June (14.2 C vs normal 14.6 C) and August (16.1 C vs. normal 16.4 C), while July was warmer than normal (16.8 C vs. 16.2 C).  

The average daily high temperature this summer was slightly below normal 19.8 C (versus the normal of 20.0 C) while the average daily minimum was 11.5 C (right on normal).  

 

The chart below shows the daily maximum and minimum temperatures at Victoria Gonzales during summer 2024, compared with the 30-year averages.  There weren't really any strong patterns: temperatures generally fluctuated between above and below normal throughout the summer.  

The warmest temperature of the summer was 28.3 C on July 10th.   The coolest temperature during the summer was 8.6 C on June 13th.

Victoria received 70.2 mm of rain from June to August, about 50% more than its normal summer rainfall of 47 mm. This was Victoria's wettest summer in 27 years.  As is typical for Victoria, most of the summer's rain fell on a small number of days: more than half (57%) fell on the 3 wettest days, and 76% fell on the 5 wettest days.  The wettest day of the summer was August 24th, with 20.2 mm (the wettest August day in 20 years).

Victoria had 14 days with measurable rainfall this summer, close to the normal 14.8 days.  There were 6 days with measurable rain (>0.2 mm) in June, 2 in July, and 6 in August.  

The chart below shows daily precipitation during summer 2024, and compares the cumulative precipitation with the 30-year average.   The first few days of June were quite rainy, then there was a long dry period until late August (including a 31-day period with no measurable rain from June 28 to July 28).  The summer ended with several more rainy days in late August.

Summer 2024 had close to normal sunshine.  June was average; July was sunnier than normal, but August was cloudier than normal  

The table below shows the number of mostly sunny days (>80% of possible sunshine), partly cloudy days (20-80% of possible sunshine), and mostly cloudy days (<20% of possible sunshine).  Summer 2024 had more mostly sunny days than normal (52 in 2024 compared with the normal of 45 days).  However, there were also more mostly cloudy days than normal (17 days compared with the normal of 12).  

Summer 2023: warmer and slightly drier than normal

 Meteorological summer consists of June, July, and August.  Summer 2023 was warmer and a bit drier than normal.

The mean temperature this past summer at Victoria Gonzales was 16.4 degrees, which is 0.7 degrees above the 30-year average.  Summer 2023 was tied for the 6th warmest in Victoria since record-keeping began at Gonzales Observatory in 1914.  Temperatures got warmer as the summer progressed: June was close to average, July was 0.5 degrees above normal, and August was 1.4 degrees above normal.  In fact, August's mean temperature of 17.8 C was the warmest on record at Victoria Gonzales.

The average daily high temperature this summer was 20.7 C (versus the normal of 20.0 C) while the average daily minimum was 12.0 C (normal 11.5 C).   

The chart below shows the daily maximum and minimum temperatures at Victoria Gonzales during summer 2023, compared with the 30-year averages.  The first half of the summer had a mix of both below and above normal temperatures, while the second half of the summer saw mostly above normal temperatures.  The warmest temperature of the summer was 32.5 C on August 19th, which was also the 10th hottest August day ever recorded in Victoria.  It was the only day of the summer to exceed 30 C.    

The coolest temperature during the summer was 8.5 C on June 19th.

Daily Max & Min Temperatures in Victoria, Summer 2023

Victoria received 35.4 mm of rain from June to August, about three-quarters of its normal summer rainfall of 47 mm. While it was drier than normal, it was not usually so: summer 2023 was just the 41st driest summer in Victoria in the 125 years of record-keeping.  Just two days accounted for 70% of the summer's rainfall: June 10th (13.2 mm) and July 24th (11.4 mm).

Victoria had only 8 days with measurable rainfall this summer, compared with the normal 14.8 days.  There were 3 days with measurable rain (>0.2 mm) in June, 1 in July, and 4 in August.  

The chart below shows daily precipitation during summer 2023, and compares the cumulative precipitation with the 30-year average.   While rainfall was very sporadic, the cumulative rainfall generally kept fairly close to normal throughout the summer.

Daily & Cumulative Rainfall  in Victoria, Summer 2023

Summer 2023 sunnier than normal.  June and July were both sunnier than normal, while August was close to normal.  

The table below shows the number of mostly sunny days (>80% of possible sunshine), partly cloudy days (20-80% of possible sunshine), and mostly cloudy days (<20% of possible sunshine).  Summer 2023 was very sunny, with significantly more mostly sunny days than normal (62 in 2023 compared with the normal of 45 days).  There were also fewer mostly cloudy days than normal (10 days compared with the normal of 12).  July was a particularly sunny month.

Victoria's summer weather depends a lot on how close you are to the Strait of Juan de Fuca

 July 2023 was a very nice month in Victoria.  The temperature was above normal, with a mean temperature of 16.7 C at Victoria Gonzales, 0.5 degrees above normal.  With no significant heat waves, the extreme max at Victoria Gonzales was 26.4 C.  So it was warm, but not too hot.  Rainfall was close to normal (11.4 mm vs normal of 12.1 mm), but it all fell on one day (July 24), while the rest of the month was dry and mostly sunny.

However, Victoria has a lot of microclimates.  During the summer, the biggest factor is how close you are to the cool waters of the Strait of Juan de Fuca.  Locations near the Strait are much cooler and windier than other parts of Greater Victoria.

Below is a table showing the average daily maximum temperature during July for various Environment Canada weather sites in Greater Victoria.  While locations near the Strait (Victoria Harbour, Victoria Gonzales, and Esquimalt Harbour) averaged 20-22 C, other locations were in the 24-26 C range.

This table doesn't even capture the full impact of the Strait.  The numbers in the table are calculated by averaging the high temperature for each day in July.  However, places near the Strait often only hit their daily high for a brief period before the seabreeze kicks back in again, while locations away from the Strait tend to see more extended periods of warmer temperatures in the afternoon.

The chart below compares the average hourly temperature at Victoria Gonzales and at the University of Victoria.  While the average temperature at U-Vic warms steadily throughout the afternoon, peaking just below 24 C, the average temperature at Victoria Gonzales remains close to 18 C all afternoon.

Wind is another major difference.  The chart below compares the average hourly wind speed at Victoria Gonzales and at the University of Victoria.  At Gonzales, the wind is generally light in the morning, but it tends to build during the afternoon, and peaks at an average 24 km/hr in the early evening hours between 6 pm and 9 pm.  By contrast, winds are much lighter at UVic, peaking at only 7-8 km/hr during the afternoon.

These differences can mean that people in different parts of Greater Victoria can experience very different summers, depending on where they live.  For those in the southern part of Esquimalt, James Bay, Fairfield, and South Oak Bay, summers are much cooler and breezier than they are elsewhere.

Victoria records 53 days with no measurable rainfall - the third longest such dry streak on record

 Following the unprecedented heat wave in late June 2021, temperatures in Victoria returned to normal, but the dry sunny weather continued.  

Victoria Gonzales received no measurable rainfall in July.  That is the 7th time that Victoria has experienced a July with no measurable rain (the other times being 1914, 1922, 1926, 1958, 1984, 2018).  It is also the 12th time overall that Victoria has had a calendar month with no measurable rain.  

In all, there was no measurable rain recorded at Victoria Gonzales from June 15 to August 6 - a total of 53 days.  That makes it the third longest such dry streak recorded in Victoria over the past 120 years.  The longest dry streak was 63 days, from June 15 to August 16, 1926.  The second longest was 54 days from July 17 to September 8, 1986 - many residents will remember that year for the great weather at Expo 86.  

The chart below shows the longest dry streaks ever recorded in Victoria.  Of note, 4 of the 10 longest dry streaks occurred in the 1920s, which was the driest decade on record in Victoria for both average annual precipitation (601 mm) and average summer rainfall (34 mm for the June to August period). The past 10 years (2011-20) was the second driest decade for summers, with an average 36 mm of rain, which could indicate the beginning of a trend towards even drier summers that most climate models predict for our area as a result of climate change.  Conversely, none of the longest dry streaks was in the 1990s, which was one of the wettest decades (along with the 1930s) in Victoria, for both total annual precipitation and summer rainfall.  

A look back at summer 2016

Now that August is over, meteorological summer (June, July, and August) is also over.  Summer 2016 started out a little more unsettled than usual in Victoria, but in the end it turned out to be very nice.

At Victoria Gonzales, there was a total of 41 mm of rain during June, July, and August.  That's a little drier than the 50 mm that Victoria receives on average during the summer, but nothing unusual.  In fact, about 40% of the summers at Victoria Gonzales over the past 118 years have been drier, with the driest summer (1970) receiving just 10.5 mm of rain during June, July, and August.  While this June was a little wetter than normal, July and August were both a little drier.  There were 15 days with measurable precipitation during the summer, which is right on average.

The chart below shows daily rainfall during summer 2016, and compares the cumulative rainfall with the 30-year average.  You can see that June and the first week in July was generally a little wetter than average, but then it was very dry until the last few days in August.  From July 10 to August 27, there was a seven week stretch with just one day and only 1 mm of rain, and from July 23 to August 27, there was a 36-day period with no measurable precipitation.  That's a little longer than the typical drought period that Victoria receives each summer, which averages 28 days.

Daily and cumulative rainfall, 2016 vs 30-year average

The chart below compares Victoria's rainfall during summer 2016 with a number of other locations.  Compared with Victoria Gonzales' 42 mm, the Victoria Airport actually received slightly less rain, at 38 mm.  In Vancouver, there was 105 mm at the Airport and 156 mm downtown at the Harbour (so nearly four times as much rain as Victoria).  Up-Island also had more rain than Victoria, with 115 mm at Nanaimo and 95 mm at Comox.  Rainfall in Seattle was closest to Victoria, although there was still nearly twice as much, with 68 mm.  Finally, I have included Toronto's 133 mm.  There was a lot of coverage in the news about the drought affecting Southern Ontario, so this shows that everything's relative: even with one of the worst droughts in memory, Toronto still received more than three times as much rain as Victoria this summer.

Total rainfall, summer 2016

Now lets talk about temperatures.  The mean temperature for June, July, and August at Victoria Gonzales was 16.4 degrees, substantially higher than the 30-year average of 15.6.  In fact, summer 2016 was the 6th warmest in 119 years of record-keeping at Gonzales.  (Last year's summer, at 16.9 degrees, was the warmest on record.)  June's mean temperature of 15.5 degrees was 1.0 degrees above normal, while July's mean of 16.1 degrees was right on normal.  It was August when things really heated up: the mean temperature of 17.5 was 1.2 degrees above normal and just 0.1 degrees below the all time record.  In fact, at the Victoria Airport it was the hottest August on record.

The chart below shows the daily maximum and minimum temperatures at Victoria Gonzales during summer 2016, compared with the 30-year averages.  You can see that there were spikes of above average temperatures in June and again in August, while temperatures in July stayed very close to the average.  The warmest temperature of the summer was 33.1 degrees on August 19.

Daily maximum and minimum temperatures at Victoria Gonzales , summer 2016

Victoria's advantage when the weather is unsettled

We're currently into a perfect stretch of warm, dry and sunny summer weather: take a look at the forecast for Victoria for the next week.

However, it seems like earlier in the summer the weather was a bit more unsettled than usual, especially in June and the first half of July.  While we might complain when the weather's not perfect in the summer, we should remember that compared with other locations in the region, Victoria's weather actually stands out the most when the weather pattern is a bit more unsettled.  When we have a strong ridge of high pressure giving us the sunny weather we're currently experiencing, other parts of the B.C. south coast are usually experiencing similar conditions.  It's when the weather's unsettled that Victoria's climate really shines.  Unsettled weather during the summer might mean a little more cloud and a chance of sprinkles in Victoria, while in other parts of the region they are getting much more cloud and rain.

Let's start by comparing the rainfall in Victoria and Vancouver this summer.  The chart below compares monthly rainfall from May up until today (August 14) at Victoria Gonzales and Vancouver Harbour (downtown).  You can see that Vancouver has clearly had a LOT more rain.

Summer 2016 Monthly Rainfall, Victoria vs. Vancouver

On average, Vancouver gets about three times as much rainfall from May to August than Victoria (240 mm vs. 80 mm).  This year, Vancouver has had five times as much rain as Victoria (224 mm vs 45 mm).

The chart below compares the total May-August 2016 rainfall (up to August 14) at Victoria Gonzales with several other  locations in the region.  Although the Victoria Airport usually gets about 35-40% more rain than Victoria Gonzales during the summer, this year it's been almost as dry.  However, Vancouver Airport (located in a relatively dry part of the Vancouver region) has had more than three times as much rain as Victoria, and as we've seen, Vancouver Harbour has seen five times as much rain.  Nanaimo, Comox, and Campbell River - which normally get about twice as much rain as Victoria during the summer - have received nearly three times as much rain as Victoria this summer. Finally, Seattle Airport - which normally gets about 60% more rain than Victoria during the summer - has received about double Victoria's rainfall this summer.

Total Rainfall, May to August 2016

So during this somewhat unsettled summer, other locations in the region have received even more rain relative to Victoria than they normally do.  We might grumble sometimes when we get a patch of unsettled weather in the summer instead of the endless sunny days that we expect, but we should keep in mind that when it's unsettled here in Victoria, it's probably still a lot better weather than other parts of the region.

While we're talking about the rainfall amounts this summer, I'd just like to comment on another case of it all being relative.  We've heard in the news that Southern Ontario is experiencing a severe drought this summer.  In Toronto, they have received just 45% of their normal rainfall since the beginning of May.  Sounds pretty dry, doesn't it?  The thing is, normal May-August rainfall in Toronto is 300 mm, so 45% of that is 135 mm - or about three times as much rain as Victoria has seen over the same period.  For Victoria, 135 mm of rain during May to August would be an unusually wet summer, and certainly wouldn't be considered a severe drought!  In fact, in 117 years of record-keeping at Victoria Gonzales, there have only been five summers where our rainfall totals have reached 135 mm.  As I said, it's all relative!