What is the likelihood of rain on any given date in Victoria?

The chart below shows the chance of measurable precipitation in Victoria on any given date.  It is based on Environment Canada long term climate data for Victoria Gonzales (1914-2020).  Comparable data for Vancouver, Calgary, and Toronto has also been included for comparison.

The line for Victoria shows a rainy late fall and winter with a distinct summer drought period, characteristic a Mediterranean climate.  The average daily chance of precipitation ranges from a high of more than 60% in November to less than 10% in late July.  The precipitation chance starts at  close to 60% in January, followed by a gradual decrease through the late winter and spring.  By mid-June, the rain chance has dropped to 20%, and it stays in that range until mid-July.  Then there is a very sharp drop, from just over 20% on July 11 to less than 10% from July 20 to August 2nd - that's the time to plan your outdoor activities in Victoria since you are almost guaranteed dry weather!  In early August, the chance of rain once again starts increasing, reaching a peak of 64% by mid-November, when it levels off.  There is a much steeper increase in the likelihood of rain during the late summer and fall compared with the more gradual decrease in the rain chance during the late winter and spring.  

Perhaps not surprisingly, Vancouver follows a similar pattern of dry summers and wet winters, although the chance of rain is consistently higher in Vancouver, ranging from a peak of 70% to a low point of 15%.  This higher chance of rain is to be expected given that Vancouver gets more than twice as much rain overall than Victoria.  Calgary's precipitation pattern is more or less the opposite of Victoria's (or Vancouver's), with the lowest chance of precipitation during the late fall and winter (dropping as low as 15% in early November) and a peak of rainfall during the late spring and summer (topping out at 45% in late June).  Toronto's precipitation pattern shows the least seasonal variation of the four cities, although there still is a dip in the rain chance during the summer, to a low of 28% in mid-August versus a peak of 52% in early January.  

The chance of precipitation is lower in Victoria than it is in Calgary for just under 4.5 months, from May 5 until September 15.  The chance of precipitation in Victoria is lower than it is in Toronto for just over 6 months, from April 1 to October 8.