Fall 2019 in Victoria: Cooler and Drier than Normal

We're now at the end of meteorological autumn, which runs from September 1 to November 30.  Overall, fall 2019 was slightly cooler and drier than normal.  September was close to normal temperatures while October was the coolest in 35 years.  November was slightly warmer than normal.  Normally in the fall, rainfall amounts  in Victoria increase sharply as the season progresses - November averages more than 5 times as much rain as September.  However, this fall, rainfall was much more evenly distributed throughout the season than is normally the case.

Victoria received 190 mm of rain this fall, 84% of the 30-year average of 226 mm.  Victoria received more than double its normal rainfall in September, close to normal rainfall in October, then only 52% of normal rainfall in November.   The 68 mm of rain recorded this November was tied for the 7th driest in the past 30 years, so while it was  drier than normal, it was nowhere near record-setting (just 15 mm in November 1979).


There were 36 days with measurable rainfall during fall 2019, close to the normal 37 days.  The biggest anomaly was  in November when there were just 10 days with measurable rainfall compared with the normal 18 days.  There was a 14-day dry streak from October 26 to November 8 - the longest such streak on record during the month of November at Victoria Gonzales.  Once you get into November, dry streaks are pretty rare in Victoria.  By contrast, the longest October dry streak was much longer at 33 days, ending October 28, 1987.

The chart below shows daily precipitation during fall 2019, and compares the cumulative precipitation with the 30-year average.   Cumulative precipitation was above average for most of the fall, thanks to the wet start in September and early October.  This was followed by the 14-day dry stretch noted above during late October and early November.  Some rain did return in mid-November, but not enough to bring seasonal rainfall to normal levels.  The wettest day of the fall was November 17, with 30 mm, accounting for nearly half of rainfall during the entire month of November.

Daily & Cumulative Rainfall in Victoria, Fall 2019

Victoria is usually much drier than surrounding locations in the region, but that was less case this fall.  The Victoria Airport in North Saanich normally receives about 20% more rain during the fall than Victoria proper, but this year the Airport received only 4% more (197 mm at the Airport vs. 190 mm at Victoria Gonzales).  Seattle normally receives about 30% more fall rainfall than Victoria, but this year it only got about 16% more rain.  On the other hand, Vancouver received 419 mm, or more than twice as much rain as Victoria, which is fairly typical.

Comparison of Rainfall in the Victoria Region, Fall 2019

The mean temperature this past fall at Victoria Gonzales was 10.7 degrees, cooler than the 30-year average of 11.0 degrees.  This was the first cooler than average fall since 2013 - the last five falls have averaged 11.7 degrees.  For the fall as a whole, the average daily maximum was 13.5 degrees (0.5 degrees cooler than the long-term average) while the average daily minimum was 7.9 degrees (just 0.1 degrees cooler than the long-term average).        

The chart below shows the daily maximum and minimum temperatures at Victoria Gonzales during fall 2019, compared with the 30-year averages.  Generally, daily max temperatures were slightly below the average for most of the season, except for a brief heatwave in early September and a warmer than average period in mid-November.  Daily minimum temperatures fluctuated on either side of the average.  The warmest temperature of the fall was 25.1 degrees on September 5.  The coldest temperature of the fall was a chilly -0.8 degrees on November 30, the last day of the season.  There were 2 days this fall (November 29 and 30) when the minimum temperature went below freezing.  The average first frost at Victoria Gonzales is December 26, so frost in November is earlier than normal.

Daily Max & Min Temperatures in Victoria, Fall 2019