Spring 2021: Drier and slightly cooler than normal

 Meteorological spring consists of March, April, and May.  Spring 2021 in Victoria brought lower rainfall and slightly cooler temperatures than normal.  The spring started out cooler than normal in March, followed by a slightly warmer than normal April, and ended with a cooler than normal May.  Meanwhile, all three spring months were drier than normal in 2021.

The mean temperature this past spring at Victoria Gonzales was 9.8 degrees (ave. high 13.3 & ave. low 6.4), which is 0.3 degrees below the 30-year average of 10.1 C.  March was 0.6 degrees cooler than normal, April was 0.4 degrees warmer than normal, then May was 0.6 degrees cooler than normal.      

The chart below shows the daily maximum and minimum temperatures at Victoria Gonzales during spring 2021, compared with the 30-year averages.  The most obvious feature is the "heat wave" that Victoria experienced in mid-April.  Temperatures were in the 20s for 5 days, peaking at 24 C on April 17.  For much of the rest of spring, temperatures were generally below normal.

There were no days during Spring 2020 when the overnight low fell below freezing.  On average, Victoria sees just 0.6 days each spring with a low temperature below 0.  The coldest temperature of the spring was March 15 when the temperature dropped to 1.6 degrees.  The warmest day of the spring was 24.0 degrees on April 17.  That is unusually early for the warmest day of spring, in part thanks to a cool May.  Spring 2021 in Victoria saw no days with temperatures above 25 degrees, compared with the average of 0.5 25-degree plus days each spring.

Max & Min Temperatures in Victoria, Spring 2021

Victoria received 83 mm of precipitation during the March to May period.  That's about 72% of the 30-year average spring precipitation of 115 mm, making it the 25th driest spring at Victoria Gonzales in 108 years - in other words, drier than normal, but not exceedingly dry.  March saw 40 mm of rain - just 72% of normal, April saw 22 mm of rain -  just 65% of normal, and May saw 21 mm - 80% of normal rainfall.  

Spring 2021 also saw fewer than average days with measurable rainfall: just 27 days compared with the average of 33.6.  There were 9 days in March, 7 days in April, and 11 days in May with measurable rainfall.  

The chart below shows daily precipitation during spring 2021, and compares the cumulative precipitation with the 30-year average.   Cumulative rainfall stayed below average throughout throughout the spring.  March 24, with 15.4 mm, was the wettest day of the spring.  March 28, with 11.6 mm, was the only other day during the spring with more than 10 mm of rain.

Daily & Cumulative Rainfall in Victoria, Spring 2021

The chart below compares the precipitation amounts in Victoria this spring with other locations in the region.  While Victoria Gonzales typically receives the lowest amount of rainfall in the region, in spring 2021, Victoria Airport was actually drier.  While spring rainfall was 72% of normal at Victoria Gonzales, it was just 32% of normal at Victoria Airport and 44% of normal in Vancouver.  Looking at this another, Vancouver typically gets more than 3 times as much rain in the spring as Victoria does, but in 2021 it received less than double Victoria's rainfall.  Seattle received 52% of its normal spring rainfall.    

Regional Comparison of Spring 2021 Rainfall

A look at Winter 2020-21 in Victoria

Meteorological winter is from December 1 to February 28.  Winter 2020-21 in Victoria brought close to normal temperatures overall, and above average rainfall and snowfall.  

The mean temperature this past winter at Victoria Gonzales was 5.9 degrees, which is just 0.1 degrees warmer than the 30-year average of 5.8.  The average daily maximum for winter 2020-21 was 7.9 degrees (right on the 30-year average), while the average daily minimum was 3.9 (versus the 30-year average of 3.7).  The winter started out mild in December and January, but a cold spell in mid-February brought the overall temperature for the winter much closer to the long term average.  December was 0.9 degrees warmer than average and January was 0.8 degrees warmer than average, but February was 1.5 degrees colder than average.     

The chart below shows the daily maximum and minimum temperatures at Victoria Gonzales during winter 2020-21, compared with the 30-year averages.  The first half of the winter was generally milder than average, with the exception of a short cold spell in mid-December.  The first half of January was especially mild, but that was followed by another short cold spell in late January.  Temperatures rebounded in early February, only to plunge to the coldest levels of the winter in mid-February, with two days when the temperature did not go above freezing (February 11 and 12).  The warmest temperature of the winter was 14.1 degrees on January 15, while the coldest overnight temperature was -4.0 degrees February 11.

Victoria Gonzales saw 6 days this winter with overnight lows below freezing, versus the long-term average of 9.6 days.  Interestingly, there were no days below freezing until quite late in the winter - February 9 - then Victoria saw 6 days in a row with overnight lows below freezing during the February cold snap, from February 9 to 14.  

Daily Max & Min Temperatures in Victoria, winter 2020-21

Victoria received 380 mm of precipitation from December to February, 42% more than the normal winter precipitation of 267 mm.  December was the wettest month with 157 mm (60% above the average of 98 mm).  January was only slightly wetter than normal, with 111 mm versus the normal 105 mm.  February was also much wetter than normal, with 113 mm - 77% above the normal 64 mm for the month.

Winter 2020-21 also saw more days with measurable precipitation than the 30-year average.  There were 56 days with greater than 0.2 mm of precipitation versus the long term average of 46.4 days.  In other words, there was at least some rain (or snow) on 62% of days during winter 2020-21.  December saw 20 days with precipitation (versus the normal 16.8), January saw 17 days (close to the normal 16.6), and February saw 19 days (versus the normal 13.0 days).  

The chart below shows daily precipitation during winter 2020-21, and compares the cumulative precipitation with the 30-year average.  From about mid-December onward, cumulative seasonal precipitation was well above average.    

December started out relatively dry (with the exception of 18 mm of rain on December 8), but mid to late December saw quite a bit of rain.  This included a deluge on December 21 which brought 55 mm of rain, making ti the second wettest day at Victoria Gonzales in the past 15 years.  Early January was quite wet, followed by a drier period in late January and early February.  The second half of February turned quite wet (and at times snowy).  

The chart below compares the precipitation amounts in Victoria this winter with other locations in the region.  Thanks to the Olympic Mountain rainshadow, Victoria Gonzales is typically much drier than other locations in the region,  but for winter 2020-21, the differences were less than normal, especially compared with Victoria Airport and Vancouver.  That is because Victoria's winter precipitation of 380 mm was 42% above normal in 2020-21, while Victoria Airport and Vancouver were both much closer to normal.  

The Victoria Airport received 402 mm. Typically, the Airport receives 43% more winter precipitation than Victoria Gonzales, but this year the difference was much less thanks to much higher than normal rainfall at Gonzales versus close to normal amounts at the Airport.  Vancouver received 558 mm of precipitation this winter - about 47% more than Victoria.  Normally, Vancouver receives more than double Victoria's winter precipitation, but again, Vancouver was much closer to its normal amount this year, while Victoria was much higher than normal.  Seattle received 510 mm of precipitation this winter, about 34% more than Victoria.  Like Victoria, Seattle was significantly wetter than normal this winter.  

Comparison of Winter 2020-21 Precipitation

Victoria received 28 cm of  snow in winter 2020-21.  That's double the normal winter snowfall of 13.8 cm.  All of the winter snow fell during 4 days in February, with most of it (22 cm) falling on  February 13.  That one February snow event was enough to make it the snowiest winter in Victoria in the past 10 years.  The number of days with snow on the ground was also above normal, but only slightly.  Victoria saw 4 days with at least 2 cm of snow on the ground this winter versus the 30-year average of 3.2 days.

Overall, winter 2020 was  close to normal for sunshine.  However, the seasonal total masks the fact that December was sunnier than normal, while February was cloudier than normal.  Typically, the amount of sunshine during the winter in Victoria increases from December to January to February, but this winter the amount of sunshine was fairly similar in each month.

The table below shows the number of mostly sunny days (>80% of possible sunshine), partly cloudy days (20-80% of possible sunshine), and mostly cloudy days (<20% of possible sunshine) during winter 2020-21.  Overall, the winter total was fairly close to normal, with December having more sunny days than normal, which offset February's fewer than normal sunny days.

2020 weather in Victoria: year in review

Overall, Victoria's weather in 2020 was wetter than normal, but with close to average temperatures.

The mean temperature at Victoria Gonzales for 2020 was 10.7 degrees C, the same as in 2019 and right on the 1991-2020 30-year average.

Just 4 months had above average temperatures in 2020.  January was slightly (0.1 degree) above normal, while May, September, and December were each about 1 degree above normal.  Conversely, there were 8  months with below average temperatures in 2020.  March was the most unusual, with temperatures averaging 1.2 degrees below normal.  The other months were all less than 0.5 degrees below normal.  

The warmest temperature of 2020 was on August 16, with a temperature of 29.5 C.  There were 12 days in 2020 with daily maximums above 25 degrees, compared with the average of 9 days.  There were brief warm spells in May (peaking at 27.8 C on May 10), July (peaking at 29.1 C on July 26), August, and September (peaking at 29.4 C on September 10).  

The coldest temperature of 2020 was -5.7 C on January 14.  That was the coldest temperature recorded at Victoria Gonzales in more than 6 years.  There were 8 days in 2020 when the temperature went below 0, just less than the long-term average of 9.5 days.  Of those days when temperatures dropped below freezing, 6 were in January while 2 were in March.

The chart below shows the daily maximum and minimum temperatures at Victoria Gonzales in 2020, compared with the long-term normal temperatures.  You can the brief cold snap in mid-January, early March, and late October.  You can also see the occasional warm spikes, in May, July, August, and September.

Victoria received 837 mm of precipitation in 2020, nearly 30% more than the long-term average of 656 mm.  In fact, 2020 was the wettest year in Victoria in more than 20 years.  The 3 winter months - January, February, and December - were all wetter than normal in 2020.  January was particularly wet, with roughly double the normal precipitation, and it accounted for more than half of the surplus rainfall in 2020.   In contrast, the remaining 9 months saw close to normal rainfall overall, though March was significantly drier than normal while September was wetter than normal.

The chart below shows daily and cumulative precipitation at Victoria Gonzales for 2020.  You can see the heavy rainfall in January, and as a result, the cumulative rainfall quickly exceeded the 30-year average, and stayed above the average for the entire year.  

There were 139 days with measurable precipitation in 2020, compared with the normal of 132 days.  By far the wettest day of the year was December 21, when 55 mm of rain fell (at times mixed with a little wet snow).  In fact, this was the wettest day recorded at Victoria Gonzales in almost 5 years.  At the nearby University of Victoria weather station, 70 mm of rain was recorded, making it the wettest day there in 15 years.  There were 3 other days with more than 25 mm of rain, in January and early February.  On average, Victoria gets 2.9 days per year with 25 mm or more precipitation.   The longest dry stretch was 22 days, from July 12 to August 2.  This is a little shorter than the average summer drought period of 27 days with no rainfall.

The chart below compares annual precipitation at Victoria Gonzales in 2020 with other locations in the region.  Thanks to its rainshadow location, Victoria is typically drier than most other locations, and that was the case in 2020, though  not by as much as it usually is.  That's because precipitation at Victoria Gonzales was 28% above normal in 2020, while it was just 20% above normal at the Victoria Airport (in North Saanich) and 16% above normal in Seattle.  Vancouver actually saw precipitation that was 6% below normal in 2020, though the amount (1428 mm) was still 70% higher than Victoria.  On average, Vancouver Harbour gets 132% more precipitation than Victoria Gonzales.

Victoria had 23 cm of snow in 2020, compared with the average of 16 cm.  Nearly all the snow (22 cm) was in January, while there was just 1 cm of wet snow in December which did  not accumulate.  There were 5 days in 2020 with at least 2 cm of snow on the ground, all in January.  This is close to the annual average of 4.8 days with snow on the ground.

Sunshine was slightly above average in Victoria in 2020 thanks to above average sunshine in March, August, and December.  On the other hand, January and June were cloudier than normal.  

Fall 2020 weather in Victoria

In this post, we'll review Fall 2020.  Meteorological fall is from September 1 to November 30.  Fall 2020 in Victoria brought close to normal temperatures and slightly above average rainfall.  

The mean temperature this past fall at Victoria Gonzales was 11.4 degrees, which is just 0.2 degrees warmer than the 30-year average of 11.2.  The average daily maximum for Fall 2020 was 14.4 degrees, while the average daily minimum was 8.4.  September was much warmer than average (16.0 versus 14.9), while both October (10.8) and November (7.4) were slightly cooler than average.     

The chart below shows the daily maximum and minimum temperatures at Victoria Gonzales during fall 2020, compared with the 30-year averages.  Early September saw a warm period that sent temperatures into the upper 20s.  The warmest temperature of the fall was 29.4 degrees on September 10.  There was another warm spell in late September and early October. Late October saw an unusual cold spell, with a record low maximum of just 7.4 degrees on October 23rd, and temperatures dropping to just 0.4 degrees overnight on October 25, the coldest temperature recorded this fall.  The  normal daily max/min in late October is 13/8 degrees.  

Daily Max & Min Temperatures in Victoria, Fall 2020

Victoria received 244 mm of rain from September to November, compared with the normal rainfall of 227 mm.  September was wetter than normal (45.6 mm versus normal of 30.2 mm) while October (80.8 mm) and November (117.8 mm) were both close to normal rainfall.  

While the amount of rain during fall 2020 was slightly above normal, the number of days with measurable rainfall was slightly below normal.  Fall 2020 saw 34 days with measurable rainfall (8 in September, 8 in October, and 18 in November) compared with the average of 37.9 days that Victoria usually sees during the fall.  The difference was due entirely to the lower than average number of days with rainfall in October (8 verses 12.8), while days with rainfall were close to average in the other months.  

The chart below shows daily precipitation during fall 2020, and compares the cumulative precipitation with the 30-year average.   September started out dry, but a rainy spell during the second half of the month pushed cumulative rainfall above normal.  There was a short dry spell in late September and early October (12 days without measurable rainfall), but then fairly consistent rain for the rest of the fall.  The highest rainfall amount was 21.2 mm on November 3.  Victoria Gonzales typically receives its first 25 mm rainfall day by mid-November.  There were no such days during fall 2020, although there were 3 days with around 20 mm of rain.

Daily & Cumulative Rainfall in Victoria, Fall 2020

The chart below compares the rainfall amounts in Victoria this fall with other locations in the region.  As is typically the case, Victoria Gonzales had the lowest amount, with a total of 244 mm.  The Victoria Airport received 314 mm - 28% more than Victoria Gonzales.  Vancouver received 460 mm - 88% more than Victoria.  Normally, Vancouver receives more than double the rainfall that Victoria gets in the fall.  Seattle received 318 mm - about 30% more than Victoria, and mostly due to a much wetter September in Seattle.  

Comparison of rainfall by month, Fall 2020

Fall 2020 was very close to normal for sunshine, and in fact all three fall months were close to the long term averages. Victoria received about 47% of possible sunshine during fall 2020, ranging from 58% in September, to 45% in October, and 33% in November.

The table below shows the number of mostly sunny days (>80% of possible sunshine), partly cloudy days (20-80% of possible sunshine), and mostly cloudy days (<20% of possible sunshine) during fall 2020.  This shows a fairly typical fall pattern for Victoria.  More than half of the the days in September were mostly sunny, while partly cloudy days were most common in October, and mostly cloudy days were most common in November.

Summer 2020: Average rainfall but cooler than normal

Meteorological summer consists of June, July, and August.  Summer 2020 in Victoria brought cooler than normal temperatures and normal rainfall.  

The mean temperature this past summer at Victoria Gonzales was 15.3 degrees, which is 0.5 degrees cooler than the 30-year average.  Summer 2020 was the coolest in Victoria since 2012.  All three summer months were about 0.5 degrees cooler than normal.     

The chart below shows the daily maximum and minimum temperatures at Victoria Gonzales during summer 2020, compared with the 30-year averages.  Aside from the occasional short "heat wave", temperatures were generally below average for most of the summer, particularly in early July.  The average high temperature at Victoria Gonzales for summer 2020 was just 19.1 C (17.6 C in June, 19.7 C in July, and 19.9 C in August).  Other locations in the region, away from the cooling effects of the Strait of Juan de Fuca, were warmer.  For example, the average daily high temperature this summer was 20.8 C at Oaklands School, 21.8 C at U-Vic, and 23.3 C at Millstream Elementary in Langford.

Victoria Gonzales averages 38 days each summer when the temperature exceeds 20 C, but for summer 2020 there were only 26 such days: 5 in June, 13 in July (all during the second half of the month), and 8 in August.  There were only 4 days above 25 C in summer 2020 compared with the average of 7.  There were no days when the temperature exceeded 30 C, compared with the average of 1.1 days.  It did exceed 29 C twice: once in late July and again in mid-August.

Daily Max & Min Temperatures in Victoria, Summer 2020

Victoria received 47 mm of rain from June to August, which is exactly normal for the summer period. June was slightly wetter than normal, July was slightly drier, and August was very close to normal rainfall.  

While the amount of rain during summer 2020 was normal, the number of days with measurable rainfall was higher than normal.  Summer 2020 saw 18 days with measurable rainfall (9 in June, 3 in July, and 6 in August) compared with the average of 14.7 days that Victoria usually sees during the summer.  The longest dry spell was 22 days, from July 12 to August 2.  By comparison, the average summer drought period over the past 30 years has been 26 days.

The chart below shows daily precipitation during summer 2020, and compares the cumulative precipitation with the 30-year average.   June and early July started out slightly wetter than normal, but by the end of the summer, total rainfall was right on the 30-year average.  The highest rainfall amount was 7.8 mm on June 9.

Daily & Cumulative Rainfall in Victoria, Summer 2020

The chart below compares the rainfall amounts in Victoria this summer with other locations in the region.  As is typically the case, Victoria Gonzales had the lowest amount, with a total of 47 mm.  The Victoria Airport received 75 mm - nearly 60% more than Victoria Gonzales.  Normal summer rainfall at the Victoria Airport is 67 mm.  Vancouver received 145 mm - more than three times as much as Victoria, which is fairly typical.  Seattle received 97 mm - more than double Victoria's rainfall.  However, most of Seattle's summer rain fell in June, while July and August were actually slightly drier than Victoria.  

Rainfall by location, Summer 2020

Summer 2020 was slightly sunnier than normal.  While June was a bit cloudier than normal, both July and August were sunnier than the long term average, with Victoria receiving around 74% of possible sunshine during those months.

The table below shows the number of mostly sunny days (>80% of possible sunshine), partly cloudy days (20-80% of possible sunshine), and mostly cloudy days (<20% of possible sunshine).  June had only 8 mostly sunny days, compared with the 30-year average of 11.5.  July (19 mostly sunny days) and August (18 mostly sunny days) each had two more sunny days than the 30-year average.  

What is the likelihood of rain on any given date in Victoria?

The chart below shows the chance of measurable precipitation in Victoria on any given date.  It is based on Environment Canada long term climate data for Victoria Gonzales (1914-2020).  Comparable data for Vancouver, Calgary, and Toronto has also been included for comparison.

The line for Victoria shows a rainy late fall and winter with a distinct summer drought period, characteristic a Mediterranean climate.  The average daily chance of precipitation ranges from a high of more than 60% in November to less than 10% in late July.  The precipitation chance starts at  close to 60% in January, followed by a gradual decrease through the late winter and spring.  By mid-June, the rain chance has dropped to 20%, and it stays in that range until mid-July.  Then there is a very sharp drop, from just over 20% on July 11 to less than 10% from July 20 to August 2nd - that's the time to plan your outdoor activities in Victoria since you are almost guaranteed dry weather!  In early August, the chance of rain once again starts increasing, reaching a peak of 64% by mid-November, when it levels off.  There is a much steeper increase in the likelihood of rain during the late summer and fall compared with the more gradual decrease in the rain chance during the late winter and spring.  

Perhaps not surprisingly, Vancouver follows a similar pattern of dry summers and wet winters, although the chance of rain is consistently higher in Vancouver, ranging from a peak of 70% to a low point of 15%.  This higher chance of rain is to be expected given that Vancouver gets more than twice as much rain overall than Victoria.  Calgary's precipitation pattern is more or less the opposite of Victoria's (or Vancouver's), with the lowest chance of precipitation during the late fall and winter (dropping as low as 15% in early November) and a peak of rainfall during the late spring and summer (topping out at 45% in late June).  Toronto's precipitation pattern shows the least seasonal variation of the four cities, although there still is a dip in the rain chance during the summer, to a low of 28% in mid-August versus a peak of 52% in early January.  

The chance of precipitation is lower in Victoria than it is in Calgary for just under 4.5 months, from May 5 until September 15.  The chance of precipitation in Victoria is lower than it is in Toronto for just over 6 months, from April 1 to October 8.  

How rainy is Victoria compared with other cities in Canada? It depends on where in the region you are.

When talking about Victoria's climate, this blog primarily uses data from the Victoria Gonzales weather station.  This station, located in the southeast part of the City of Victoria near the border with Oak Bay, was Victoria's official weather station for many decades.

Thanks to its southeastern location, precipitation at Victoria Gonzales is strongly impacted by the Olympic Mountain rainshadow.  That influence tends to lessen the further north and west you go in the Greater Victoria region.  Thus, when we've stated on the blog that Victoria gets less rainfall than most cities in Canada, that is based on rainfall in Victoria Gonzales, and is not necessarily true for some of the wetter parts of the region.

Below is a chart that compares average annual precipitation at various locations in Greater Victoria with major cities across Canada.  As you can see, annual precipitation at both Victoria Gonzales (608 mm) and the University of Victoria (643 mm) is relatively low.  Across Canada, only cities in the B.C. Interior and on the Prairies are drier.  In fact, just 18% of Canada's urban population lives in cities with lower annual precipitation than these two locations.   Esquimalt Harbour (861 mm) and the Victoria Airport in North Saanich (883 mm), fall more in the middle of the pack among Canadian cities, with roughly half of Canada's urban population living in cities that are drier than these locations.  Meanwhile, Langford (1133 mm) and Sooke (1236 mm) get more annual precipitation than most cities in Canada: only cities in southwestern B.C., parts of Quebec, and Atlantic Canada get more precipitation.  In fact, 81-86% of Canada's urban population lives in cities that are drier than these locations.