Fall 2020 weather in Victoria

In this post, we'll review Fall 2020.  Meteorological fall is from September 1 to November 30.  Fall 2020 in Victoria brought close to normal temperatures and slightly above average rainfall.  

The mean temperature this past fall at Victoria Gonzales was 11.4 degrees, which is just 0.2 degrees warmer than the 30-year average of 11.2.  The average daily maximum for Fall 2020 was 14.4 degrees, while the average daily minimum was 8.4.  September was much warmer than average (16.0 versus 14.9), while both October (10.8) and November (7.4) were slightly cooler than average.     

The chart below shows the daily maximum and minimum temperatures at Victoria Gonzales during fall 2020, compared with the 30-year averages.  Early September saw a warm period that sent temperatures into the upper 20s.  The warmest temperature of the fall was 29.4 degrees on September 10.  There was another warm spell in late September and early October. Late October saw an unusual cold spell, with a record low maximum of just 7.4 degrees on October 23rd, and temperatures dropping to just 0.4 degrees overnight on October 25, the coldest temperature recorded this fall.  The  normal daily max/min in late October is 13/8 degrees.  

Daily Max & Min Temperatures in Victoria, Fall 2020

Victoria received 244 mm of rain from September to November, compared with the normal rainfall of 227 mm.  September was wetter than normal (45.6 mm versus normal of 30.2 mm) while October (80.8 mm) and November (117.8 mm) were both close to normal rainfall.  

While the amount of rain during fall 2020 was slightly above normal, the number of days with measurable rainfall was slightly below normal.  Fall 2020 saw 34 days with measurable rainfall (8 in September, 8 in October, and 18 in November) compared with the average of 37.9 days that Victoria usually sees during the fall.  The difference was due entirely to the lower than average number of days with rainfall in October (8 verses 12.8), while days with rainfall were close to average in the other months.  

The chart below shows daily precipitation during fall 2020, and compares the cumulative precipitation with the 30-year average.   September started out dry, but a rainy spell during the second half of the month pushed cumulative rainfall above normal.  There was a short dry spell in late September and early October (12 days without measurable rainfall), but then fairly consistent rain for the rest of the fall.  The highest rainfall amount was 21.2 mm on November 3.  Victoria Gonzales typically receives its first 25 mm rainfall day by mid-November.  There were no such days during fall 2020, although there were 3 days with around 20 mm of rain.

Daily & Cumulative Rainfall in Victoria, Fall 2020

The chart below compares the rainfall amounts in Victoria this fall with other locations in the region.  As is typically the case, Victoria Gonzales had the lowest amount, with a total of 244 mm.  The Victoria Airport received 314 mm - 28% more than Victoria Gonzales.  Vancouver received 460 mm - 88% more than Victoria.  Normally, Vancouver receives more than double the rainfall that Victoria gets in the fall.  Seattle received 318 mm - about 30% more than Victoria, and mostly due to a much wetter September in Seattle.  

Comparison of rainfall by month, Fall 2020

Fall 2020 was very close to normal for sunshine, and in fact all three fall months were close to the long term averages. Victoria received about 47% of possible sunshine during fall 2020, ranging from 58% in September, to 45% in October, and 33% in November.

The table below shows the number of mostly sunny days (>80% of possible sunshine), partly cloudy days (20-80% of possible sunshine), and mostly cloudy days (<20% of possible sunshine) during fall 2020.  This shows a fairly typical fall pattern for Victoria.  More than half of the the days in September were mostly sunny, while partly cloudy days were most common in October, and mostly cloudy days were most common in November.

Summer 2020: Average rainfall but cooler than normal

Meteorological summer consists of June, July, and August.  Summer 2020 in Victoria brought cooler than normal temperatures and normal rainfall.  

The mean temperature this past summer at Victoria Gonzales was 15.3 degrees, which is 0.5 degrees cooler than the 30-year average.  Summer 2020 was the coolest in Victoria since 2012.  All three summer months were about 0.5 degrees cooler than normal.     

The chart below shows the daily maximum and minimum temperatures at Victoria Gonzales during summer 2020, compared with the 30-year averages.  Aside from the occasional short "heat wave", temperatures were generally below average for most of the summer, particularly in early July.  The average high temperature at Victoria Gonzales for summer 2020 was just 19.1 C (17.6 C in June, 19.7 C in July, and 19.9 C in August).  Other locations in the region, away from the cooling effects of the Strait of Juan de Fuca, were warmer.  For example, the average daily high temperature this summer was 20.8 C at Oaklands School, 21.8 C at U-Vic, and 23.3 C at Millstream Elementary in Langford.

Victoria Gonzales averages 38 days each summer when the temperature exceeds 20 C, but for summer 2020 there were only 26 such days: 5 in June, 13 in July (all during the second half of the month), and 8 in August.  There were only 4 days above 25 C in summer 2020 compared with the average of 7.  There were no days when the temperature exceeded 30 C, compared with the average of 1.1 days.  It did exceed 29 C twice: once in late July and again in mid-August.

Daily Max & Min Temperatures in Victoria, Summer 2020

Victoria received 47 mm of rain from June to August, which is exactly normal for the summer period. June was slightly wetter than normal, July was slightly drier, and August was very close to normal rainfall.  

While the amount of rain during summer 2020 was normal, the number of days with measurable rainfall was higher than normal.  Summer 2020 saw 18 days with measurable rainfall (9 in June, 3 in July, and 6 in August) compared with the average of 14.7 days that Victoria usually sees during the summer.  The longest dry spell was 22 days, from July 12 to August 2.  By comparison, the average summer drought period over the past 30 years has been 26 days.

The chart below shows daily precipitation during summer 2020, and compares the cumulative precipitation with the 30-year average.   June and early July started out slightly wetter than normal, but by the end of the summer, total rainfall was right on the 30-year average.  The highest rainfall amount was 7.8 mm on June 9.

Daily & Cumulative Rainfall in Victoria, Summer 2020

The chart below compares the rainfall amounts in Victoria this summer with other locations in the region.  As is typically the case, Victoria Gonzales had the lowest amount, with a total of 47 mm.  The Victoria Airport received 75 mm - nearly 60% more than Victoria Gonzales.  Normal summer rainfall at the Victoria Airport is 67 mm.  Vancouver received 145 mm - more than three times as much as Victoria, which is fairly typical.  Seattle received 97 mm - more than double Victoria's rainfall.  However, most of Seattle's summer rain fell in June, while July and August were actually slightly drier than Victoria.  

Rainfall by location, Summer 2020

Summer 2020 was slightly sunnier than normal.  While June was a bit cloudier than normal, both July and August were sunnier than the long term average, with Victoria receiving around 74% of possible sunshine during those months.

The table below shows the number of mostly sunny days (>80% of possible sunshine), partly cloudy days (20-80% of possible sunshine), and mostly cloudy days (<20% of possible sunshine).  June had only 8 mostly sunny days, compared with the 30-year average of 11.5.  July (19 mostly sunny days) and August (18 mostly sunny days) each had two more sunny days than the 30-year average.  

What is the likelihood of rain on any given date in Victoria?

The chart below shows the chance of measurable precipitation in Victoria on any given date.  It is based on Environment Canada long term climate data for Victoria Gonzales (1914-2020).  Comparable data for Vancouver, Calgary, and Toronto has also been included for comparison.

The line for Victoria shows a rainy late fall and winter with a distinct summer drought period, characteristic a Mediterranean climate.  The average daily chance of precipitation ranges from a high of more than 60% in November to less than 10% in late July.  The precipitation chance starts at  close to 60% in January, followed by a gradual decrease through the late winter and spring.  By mid-June, the rain chance has dropped to 20%, and it stays in that range until mid-July.  Then there is a very sharp drop, from just over 20% on July 11 to less than 10% from July 20 to August 2nd - that's the time to plan your outdoor activities in Victoria since you are almost guaranteed dry weather!  In early August, the chance of rain once again starts increasing, reaching a peak of 64% by mid-November, when it levels off.  There is a much steeper increase in the likelihood of rain during the late summer and fall compared with the more gradual decrease in the rain chance during the late winter and spring.  

Perhaps not surprisingly, Vancouver follows a similar pattern of dry summers and wet winters, although the chance of rain is consistently higher in Vancouver, ranging from a peak of 70% to a low point of 15%.  This higher chance of rain is to be expected given that Vancouver gets more than twice as much rain overall than Victoria.  Calgary's precipitation pattern is more or less the opposite of Victoria's (or Vancouver's), with the lowest chance of precipitation during the late fall and winter (dropping as low as 15% in early November) and a peak of rainfall during the late spring and summer (topping out at 45% in late June).  Toronto's precipitation pattern shows the least seasonal variation of the four cities, although there still is a dip in the rain chance during the summer, to a low of 28% in mid-August versus a peak of 52% in early January.  

The chance of precipitation is lower in Victoria than it is in Calgary for just under 4.5 months, from May 5 until September 15.  The chance of precipitation in Victoria is lower than it is in Toronto for just over 6 months, from April 1 to October 8.  

How rainy is Victoria compared with other cities in Canada? It depends on where in the region you are.

When talking about Victoria's climate, this blog primarily uses data from the Victoria Gonzales weather station.  This station, located in the southeast part of the City of Victoria near the border with Oak Bay, was Victoria's official weather station for many decades.

Thanks to its southeastern location, precipitation at Victoria Gonzales is strongly impacted by the Olympic Mountain rainshadow.  That influence tends to lessen the further north and west you go in the Greater Victoria region.  Thus, when we've stated on the blog that Victoria gets less rainfall than most cities in Canada, that is based on rainfall in Victoria Gonzales, and is not necessarily true for some of the wetter parts of the region.

Below is a chart that compares average annual precipitation at various locations in Greater Victoria with major cities across Canada.  As you can see, annual precipitation at both Victoria Gonzales (608 mm) and the University of Victoria (643 mm) is relatively low.  Across Canada, only cities in the B.C. Interior and on the Prairies are drier.  In fact, just 18% of Canada's urban population lives in cities with lower annual precipitation than these two locations.   Esquimalt Harbour (861 mm) and the Victoria Airport in North Saanich (883 mm), fall more in the middle of the pack among Canadian cities, with roughly half of Canada's urban population living in cities that are drier than these locations.  Meanwhile, Langford (1133 mm) and Sooke (1236 mm) get more annual precipitation than most cities in Canada: only cities in southwestern B.C., parts of Quebec, and Atlantic Canada get more precipitation.  In fact, 81-86% of Canada's urban population lives in cities that are drier than these locations.

Spring 2020: close to average temperatures, but slightly drier than normal

Meteorological spring consists of March, April, and May.  Spring 2020 in Victoria brought average overall temperatures and slightly less rainfall than normal.  The spring started out cooler than normal in March and ended with a warmer than normal May.  Typically, Victoria sees successively drier weather as spring progresses, but this year precipitation was fairly evenly distributed throughout the three spring months, meaning that March was significantly drier than normal, while May was slightly wetter than normal.

The mean temperature this past spring at Victoria Gonzales was 10.0 degrees (ave. high 13.4 & ave. low 6.6), which is right on the 30-year average.  Spring began with a cold March, which was 1.3 degrees cooler than normal.   April experienced normal temperatures overall, while May was 1.1 degrees warmer than normal.      

The chart below shows the daily maximum and minimum temperatures at Victoria Gonzales during spring 2020, compared with the 30-year averages.  You can see that temperatures in March were generally below average, with a short cold spell in the middle of the month.  The first 5-6 days of April were cooler then normal, but the rest of the month was generally slightly warmer than normal.  May featured two short "heat waves" on May 8-10 and on May 27-29, which pushed the average temperature for the month to above normal, despite most of the rest of May being slightly cooler than normal.  

Spring 2020 saw  two days when the overnight low fell below freezing: March 14 and 15.  On average, Victoria sees just 0.6 days each spring with a low temperature below 0.  The coldest temperature of the spring was March 14 when the temperature dropped to -0.7 degrees.  The warmest day of the spring was 27.8 degrees on May 10.  Spring 2020 in Victoria saw three days with temperatures above 25 degrees, much more than the average of just 0.5 25-degree plus days each spring.

Daily Max & Min Temperatures in Victoria, Spring 2020

Victoria received 82 mm of precipitation during the March to May period.  That's about 74% of the 30-year average spring precipitation of 112 mm, making it the 24th driest spring at Victoria Gonzales in 107 years - in other words, drier than normal, but not exceedingly dry.  March saw 28 mm of rain - just 57% of normal, April saw 25 mm of rain -  76% of normal, and May was right on the normal rainfall of 29 mm.  

Spring 2020 also saw fewer than average days with measurable rainfall: just 28 days compared with the average of 33.6.  There were 13 days in March, 7 days in April, and 8 days in May with measurable rainfall.  The longest dry spell was 17 days, from April 5-21.  

The chart below shows daily precipitation during spring 2020, and compares the cumulative precipitation with the 30-year average.   Cumulative rainfall dropped below the average early in the spring, and stayed below average throughout.  April 22, with 14.6 mm, was by far the wettest day of the spring, which was more than double the second wettest day: 6.6 mm on March 30.

Daily & Cumulative Rainfall in Victoria, Spring 2020

The chart below compares the precipitation amounts in Victoria this spring with other locations in the region.  As is typically the case, Victoria Gonzales had the lowest amount, with a total of 82 mm.  However, as with this past winter, the difference in precipitation levels between Victoria and other locations was less than usual.  That's because while spring rainfall was 74% of normal at Victoria Gonzales, it was just 63% of normal at Victoria Airport and just 43% of normal in Vancouver.  Looking at this another, Vancouver typically gets more than 3 times as much rain in the spring as Victoria does, but in 2020 it received less than double Victoria's rainfall.  On the other hand, rainfall in Seattle was actually above normal this spring, so while it normally gets just under double Victoria's spring rainfall, this year it received nearly triple, with 237 mm.    

Regional Comparison of Precipitation, Spring 2020

Winter 2019-20: fairly normal temperatures but much wetter than normal

Meteorological winter consists of December, January, and February.  Overall, this past winter was slightly milder and much wetter than normal.  The mildness of this winter was entirely due to December, which was much warmer than normal, while February was slightly cooler than normal.  In terms of precipitation, December was slightly wetter than normal, but January, and to a lesser degree February, were much wetter than normal.

The mean temperature this past winter at Victoria Gonzales was 6.0 degrees, compared with the 30-year average of 5.8 degrees.  Winter began with a mild December, which was 1.1 degrees above normal.   January experienced normal temperatures overall, while February was 0.4 degrees cooler than normal.      

The chart below shows the daily maximum and minimum temperatures at Victoria Gonzales during winter 2019-20, compared with the 30-year averages.  You can see that temperatures in December were generally above average.  January started out mild, experienced a short but sharp cold spell in the middle of the month, then returned to above normal temperatures towards the end of the month.  In February, temperatures were generally below average, especially at the beginning of the month.  The mildest day of the winter was 13.5 degrees on January 31.  The coldest day of the winter was January 14, when the temperature dipped to -5.7 degrees overnight, and the high temperature was only -2.0.  There was one stretch of 6 days from January 12-17 when the overnight temperature dipped below freezing, but there were no other days during the winter with below freezing temperatures.  On average, Victoria Gonzales gets 7.6 days with below freezing temperatures during meteorological winter.

Daily vs. average Max & Min temperatures, winter 2019-20 in Victoria

Victoria received 419 mm of precipitation during the December to February period.  That's nearly 60% more than the 30-year average winter precipitation of 264 mm, making it the 10th wettest winter on record at Victoria Gonzales (with 107 years of record-keeping), and the wettest winter in more than 20 years.  Precipitation was slightly above average in December (112 mm versus the normal 96 mm), but nearly double the normal in January (204 mm versus 107 mm) and 67% above normal in February (102 mm versus 61 mm).  

There were 55 days with measurable precipitation this winter, with 16 days in December, 25 days in January, and 14 days in February.  That's above the normal of 45 days with measurable precipitation that Victoria typically sees during the winter.  Victoria also saw a lot of really wet days this winter: it experienced 5 days with more than 25 mm of precipitation, versus the normal average of 1.6 such days.  There have only been 5 winters in 107 years at Victoria Gonzales with 5 or more days with 25 mm of precipitation.

The chart below shows daily precipitation during winter 2019-20, and compares the cumulative precipitation with the 30-year average.   Precipitation levels were generally close to the average during December, but quickly surged ahead of normal during January.  The wettest day of the winter was February 1st, with 33.8 mm of rain.  Four other days had more than 25 mm: 29.4 mm on December 20, 30.6 mm on December 31, 27 mm on January 6, and 28 mm on January 31.

Daily & cumulative precipitation, winter 2019-20 in Victoria

The chart below compares the precipitation amounts in Victoria this winter with other locations in the region.  As is typically the case, Victoria Gonzales had the lowest amount, with a total of 419 mm.  However, the difference in precipitation levels between Victoria and other locations was less than usual.  That's because winter precipitation was nearly 60% higher than normal at Victoria Gonzales, but only 17% above normal at Vancouver Airport, 37% above normal at Victoria Airport, and 47% above normal at Seattle.  

2019-20 Winter precipitation in Victoria and nearby locations

Victoria received 22 cm of snow during winter 2019-20, higher than the average winter snowfall of 16 cm.  (Victoria averages 20 cm of snow annually, but some of that falls during November and March, which are not part of meteorological winter).  All of this winter's snowfall was during 4 days in mid-January, which was much snowier than the average January snow total of 3.4 cm.  There was 5 days this winter with snow on the ground in Victoria, very close to the average of 4.8 days each winter with snow on the ground.

Review of Victoria's Weather in 2019

Victoria was drier and close to normal temperatures in 2019.

The mean temperature at Victoria Gonzales for 2019 was 10.7 degrees C, just very slightly above the 30-year average of 10.6 degrees.

In terms of average temperature, February was the most unusual month of 2019, being more than 4 degrees below normal.  It was the second coldest February on record at Victoria Gonzales, and the coldest since 1936.  October was also a cold month, being 1.2 degrees below the average, and the coldest October since 1984.  On the other other hand, January, May, and December were all more than a full degree warmer than normal in 2019.

The warmest temperature of 2019 came quite early, on June 12.  It was the only day in 2019 to hit 30 degrees or higher.  There were just 6 days in 2019 with daily maximums above 25 degrees, compared with the average of 9 days.  The coldest temperature in 2019 was -5.6 degrees on February 4.  That was the coldest temperature recorded at Victoria Gonzales in more than 5 years.  There were 18 days in 2019 when the temperature went below 0, nearly double the long-term average of 9.5 days.  February accounted for 13 of the 18 days with frost in 2019.

The chart below shows the daily maximum and minimum temperatures at Victoria Gonzales in 2019, compared with the long-term normal temperatures.  You can clearly see the cold snap which covered most of February, but was especially pronounced during the first part of the month.  You can also see the occasional warm spikes, such as 21 degrees in March, 25 degrees in early May, and 30 degrees in mid-June.  There were also some notable cold spikes in October and late November.

Daily Max & Min Temperatures at Victoria Gonzales, 2019

2019 was drier than average in Victoria.  There was 567 mm of precipitation, 87% of the normal 654 mm.  November and March were particularly dry in 2019, with both months receiving less than half of their normal rainfall.  July through September was wetter than normal in 2019, although with this being a dry time of year, it wasn't really that wet.

Thanks to its location in the Olympic Mountain rain shadow, Victoria receives less precipitation than surrounding locations, and 2019 was no exception.   The chart below compares annual precipitation in 2019 in locations around Victoria.  The Victoria Airport recorded 706 mm, 25% more than than Victoria Gonzales.  Vancouver Harbour recorded 1140 mm in 2019, while Seattle Airport received 861 mm.  While Vancouver received about twice as much precipitation as Victoria in 2019, that's actually less than the long term average, which sees Vancouver getting about 2.4 times as much precipitation as Victoria.

Annual Precipitation in Victoria and the Surrounding Region, 2019

The chart below shows daily and cumulative precipitation at Victoria Gonzales in 2019.  You can see that the cumulative precipitation in 2019 (red line) stayed below the average (blue line) for most of the year.  .

Daily & Cumulative Precipitation at Victoria Gonzales, 2019

There were just 111 days with measurable precipitation in 2019, well below the normal of 131 days.  In fact, that was the lowest number since 1987, when there were 105 precipitation days.  The wettest day in 2018 was January 3, with 36 mm.  Despite being a drier than average year, there were 4 days with more than 25 mm of rain in 2019, one more than the long term average 3 days per year.  There were 15 days with at least 10 mm of rain, close to the  normal of 16 days.

Victoria had more snow than normal in 2019, all of it from a snowy period in February.  Victoria received 26 cm of snow in 2019 compared with the long term average of 20 cm.  As mentioned, all of this snow fell in February, when Victoria typically receives less than 4 cm of snow on average.  There were 7 days with measurable snowfall in 2019, again all in February.  This was the most days with snowfall since 2008, and nearly double the normal of 8 days per year.  There was snow on the ground for 7 days in 2019, compared with the long term average of 4.8 days.  2019 saw the most days with snow on the ground in Victoria since 2008.