Summer 2019 in Victoria was statistically normal overall

Meteorological summer runs from June 1 to August 31.  Overall, this summer saw close to normal rainfall and temperatures - it was just very slightly drier and a bit warmer than normal.   However, while June was drier than normal, July and August were both a bit wetter than normal and we experienced about twice as many days with significant rainfall in July and August than we normally do.

Victoria received 48 mm of rain this summer, close to the 30-year average of 52 mm.  Looking at the past 106 summers in Victoria (going back to 1914, when the Gonzales Observatory opened), this past summer ranked as the 52^nd wettest – so pretty much in the middle of the pack.  However, this doesn’t mean that rainfall was consistently average throughout the summer.  Victoria received about half of its normal rainfall in June, but then received 33% above normal rainfall in July and 9% above normal rainfall in August.    

While the overall amount of rain was fairly typical this summer, the number of days with significant rainfall was higher than normal.  There were 12 days with more than 1 mm of rainfall this summer, compared with the normal 9.7 days.  Furthermore, 11 of these days were during July and August – the driest part of the summer, which normally sees just 5.3 days with 1 mm or more of rain.  That is likely why this summer seemed a bit more unsettled than the usual in Victoria.  

Another way to look at this is drought periods, or consecutive days without measurable rainfall.  Looking back at summers since 1914, on average there has been a 29-day stretch without measurable rainfall in Victoria.  However, this year the longest stretch was just 19 days – June 8-26.  

The chart below shows daily precipitation during summer 2019, and compares the cumulative precipitation with the 30-year average.   Cumulative precipitation was below average for most of June, but then caught up to normal following a wetter period in late June and early July.  Cumulative rainfall stayed just below normal for the rest of the summer.  The wettest day of the summer was June 27, with 8.4 mm.  Two other days had more than 5 mm – July 2 and August 2.

Daily & Cumulative Rainfall in Victoria, Summer 2019

Compared with 48 mm of rain at Victoria Gonzales during June to August, U-Vic (45 mm) and Esquimalt Harbour (52 mm) had similar amounts, while the Victoria Airport  was wetter, with 72 mm.  The chart below compares the precipitation amounts in Victoria this summer with other locations in the region and across Canada.  Vancouver and Seattle both received about 90 mm of rain.  That was close to normal for Seattle, but well below normal for Vancouver.  Typically, Vancouver receives about 3 times as much rain in the summer as Victoria, but this year it only received about twice as much.  As is typically the case, other major cities in Canada were much wetter than Victoria – generally receiving four to seven times as much rain.  

Total Rainfall Comparison, Summer 2019

The mean temperature this past summer at Victoria Gonzales was 16.0 degrees, warmer than the 30-year average of 15.6 degrees but well below the record warm summer of 2016 when it was 16.9 degrees.  The past six summers have been warmer than average in Victoria.  While June and August were warmer than normal this summer, July was right on the average.  For the summer as a whole, the average daily maximum was 20.0 degrees (just 0.2 degrees above the long-term average) while the average daily minimum was 12.0 degrees (0.7 degrees above the long-term average).   Around the region, the daily average maximum was cooler at Victoria Harbour (18.9 degrees), but warmer at U-Vic (22.2 degrees).     

The chart below shows the daily maximum and minimum temperatures at Victoria Gonzales during summer 2019, compared with the 30-year averages.  Generally, temperatures stayed fairly close to the long-term averages.  The most significant exception was a short “heat-wave” in mid-June, peaking on June 12, when the temperature reached 30.0 degrees – the warmest day of the summer.  The coldest temperature of the summer was just a few days earlier on June 9, when the overnight low hit 8.6 degrees.

Daily & Average Max & Min Temperatures, Summer 2019

A fairly warm and dry spring for 2019 in Victoria

Meteorological spring runs from March 1 to May 31.  Overall, this spring was a bit warmer and drier than normal.  All three months were warmer than average, but the drier conditions were entirely the result of a dry March. 

The mean temperature this past spring at Victoria Gonzales was 10.6 degrees, warmer than the 30-year average of 10.0 degrees but well below the record warm spring of 2016 when it was 11.9 degrees.  Five of the past six springs have been warmer than average in Victoria.  March was very slightly (0.1 degrees) above normal, April was 0.5 degrees above normal, and May was 1.1 degrees above normal.   

The chart below shows the daily maximum and minimum temperatures at Victoria Gonzales during spring 2019, compared with the 30-year averages.  Spring started out very cold and well below normal at the beginning of March, then quickly became much warmer than normal for the rest of March and the beginning of April.  A cool spell in mid to late April was followed by another period of much higher than normal temperatures at the beginning of May.  The warmest temperature this spring was 24.9 degrees on May 9, while the coldest temperature was -0.6 on March 4.

Daily Max & Min temperatures in Victoria, Spring 2019

Victoria received 89 mm of rain this spring.  That's about 20% less than the 30-year average fall precipitation of 112 mm.  This was entirely due to a dry March.  Precipitation was less than half of the average in March (20 mm versus the normal 50 mm), but the rest of the spring was slightly wetter than average, with 38 mm versus the normal 34 mm in April and 32 mm versus the normal 29 mm in May.  

There were were just 22 days with measurable precipitation this spring, with 7 days in March, 10 days in April, and 5 days in May.  That's well below the normal of 33.6 days with measurable precipitation that Victoria typically sees during the spring.  

The chart below shows daily precipitation during spring 2019, and compares the cumulative precipitation with the 30-year average.   Cumulative precipitation was below average throughout the spring.  A dry period from mid-March to early April, was followed by a brief wet period in mid-April.  This was followed by another dry period from late April to mid-May.  While May was wetter than normal, 90% of the rain fell on just two days.  May 20 was the second wettest day of the spring, with 10.6 mm, while May 25 was the wettest day of the spring, with 17.4 mm of rain (and the wettest May day in Victoria since 2011).

Cumulative & Daily Rainfall in Victoria, Spring 2019

The chart below compares the precipitation amounts in Victoria this spring with other locations in the region.  As is typically the case, Victoria Gonzales was the driest location, with a total of 89 mm during March to May.  Victoria Airport  wasn’t far behind, with 94 mm.  It was significantly wetter in Vancouver, with 172 mm at the Vancouver Airport and 210 mm at Vancouver Harbour - nearly 2.5 times what Victoria received.  Seattle received 140 mm of rain during the spring, nearly 60% more than Victoria Gonzales.  

Total Spring 2019 Rainfall in the Region

Winter 2018-19 in Victora - colder and slightly drier than normal

Meteorological winter runs from December 1 to February 28.  Overall, this past winter was colder and slightly drier than normal.  The winter started out mild in December and January, but then turned much colder than normal in February.  

The mean temperature this past winter at Victoria Gonzales was 5.2 degrees, compared with the 30-year average of 5.8 degrees.  Winter 2018-19 was 9^th coldest winter in Victoria in the past 30 years.  This was Victoria’s third colder than average winter in a row.   This winter started out quite mild: December was 1.2 degrees above normal while January was 1.1 degrees above normal.  However, this was followed by a very cold February: more than 4 degrees below normal and the coldest since 1936.    

The chart below shows the daily maximum and minimum temperatures at Victoria Gonzales during winter 2018-19, compared with the 30-year averages.  You can see that temperatures in December and January were generally above average, while temperatures in February were well below average, especially during the first part of the month.  The mildest day of the winter was 13.5 degrees on December 14.  The coldest temperature was -5.6 degrees on February 4.

Daily Max & Min temperatures at Victoria Gonzales, winter 2018-19

Victoria received 231 mm of precipitation during the December to February period.  That's about 12% less than the 30-year average winter precipitation of 264 mm.  Precipitation was slightly above average in December (104 mm versus the normal 96 mm), but then significantly below average in January (82 mm versus 107 mm) and February (46 mm versus 61 mm).  

There were 39 days with measurable precipitation this winter, with 17 days in December, 10 days in January, and 12 days in February.  That's below the normal of 45 days with measurable precipitation that Victoria typically sees during the winter.  

The chart below shows daily precipitation during winter 2018-19, and compares the cumulative precipitation with the 30-year average.   Precipitation levels were generally close to the average until mid-January and into February, when the cumulative precipitation fell below average.  The wettest day of the winter was January 3^rd, with nearly 36 mm of rain.

Daily & Cumulative Precipitation at Victoria Gonzales, winter 2018-19

The chart below compares the precipitation amounts in Victoria this winter with other locations in the region.  As is typically the case, Victoria Gonzales had the lowest amount, with a total of 232 mm.  Victoria Airport had 375 mm mm of precipitation throughout the winter, about 60% more than Victoria Gonzales.  It was wetter still in Vancouver, with 471 mm at the Vancouver Airport and 565 mm at Vancouver Harbour - nearly 2.5 times what Victoria received.  Seattle received 368 mm of precipitation during the winter.  That's about the same as Victoria Airport received, but nearly 60% more than Victoria Gonzales.  

Comparison of total winter precipitation, 2018-19

The other significant feature about winter 2018-19 was the significant snowfall that Victoria received in February.  Victoria received 26 cm of snow - all recorded in February.  On average, Victoria receives about 4 cm of snow in February and 20 cm during the entire winter.  Most of the snow this winter fell between February 8 and 12.  There was snow on the ground for 6 days, from February 11 to 16.  On average, Victoria gets 4.8 days each winter with snow on the ground.

A very cold February in Victoria!

A snowy Victoria Inner Harbour on February 12, 2019

February 2019 was the coldest February in Victoria since 1936.  The mean monthly temperature was just 2.2 C, more than 4 degrees colder than the 30-year average mean monthly February temperature of 6.3 C.  It's very unusual to have such a large anomaly for the mean monthly temperature in Victoria.  The average daily maximum temperature was 4.7 C, which is 4.1 degrees cooler than the normal February maximum of 8.8 C.  The average daily minimum temperature was -0.4 C, which was 4.2 degrees cooler than the normal February minimum of 3.8 C.  This is the first month since November 1985 that Victoria Gonzales has recorded an average minimum temperature below 0. 

Perhaps even more impressive, this past month was the coldest of any month at Victoria Gonzales since November 1985 (34 years).  In the past 50 years, there have only been two other months which have been colder than this February: November 1985 (1.8 C) and January 1972 (2.1 C).  

The coldest temperature this month was -5.6 C on February 4.  The warmest temperature was 9.0 C on February 1.  There were 13 days this month when the overnight low was below 0 C.  This is the most "frost days" in February at Victoria Gonzales since 1936, when there was 17 days.  What is most notable about the cold weather this month is how the temperatures have stayed consistently below normal since February 3.  With 26 consecutive days below normal in February, and the cool weather forecast to continue into March, this will likely be one of the longest stretches of below-normal temperatures recorded at Victoria Gonzales in the  past 50 years.

As the chart below shows, temperatures around the region were very cold in February, with many locations experiencing their coldest February in decades.  The mean monthly temperature was 2.2 C at Victoria Gonzales and 1.8 C at the University of Victoria. As is typical, the temperature was quite a bit colder at the Victoria Airport (1.1 C), which had its coldest February since 1989.  Vancouver Airport (0.4 C) had its coldest February on record (going back to 1937).  Seattle Airport (2.5 C) had its third coldest February on record, and its coldest since 1989.

Mean Monthly Temperature, February 2019

We can take some solace in the fact that these unusually cold temperatures have been experienced throughout much of western North America.  Calgary has also had its coldest February since 1936 (the same year Victoria experienced its coldest February).  Even Los Angeles has had its coldest February since 1962 (57 years).  

The chart below compares daily maximum and minimum temperatures with the 30-year average daily maximums and minimums.  Temperatures plummeted on February 3rd, and remained extremely cold for the remainder of the first half of the month, with high temperatures most days not even reaching the average low temperature.  The second half of the month was slightly less cold, though still below normal.  

Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperatures at Victoria Gonzales, February 2019

In terms of precipitation, February 2019 was somewhat drier than normal, with 46.2 mm of precipitation versus the 30-year average of 61.4 mm.  The unusual thing about this month was how much of this precipitation fell as snow.  A total of 26 cm of snow fell in Victoria during the month, making it the snowiest month since December 2008.  Normal February snowfall in Victoria is 3.6 cm.  There was measurable snow on the ground for 7 days during the month, including 5 days with more than 2.5 cm on the ground.  Victoria actually got off lightly, since many locations around the region received significantly  more snowfall, including 68 cm at the Victoria Airport in North Saanich.

The chart below shows daily and cumulative precipitation at Victoria Gonzales.  The precipitation from February 3rd to 14th all fell as snow.  The wettest day was February 11th, with 14.8 mm of precipitation, which translated into about 16 cm of snow.   The second half of the month was quite dry.

Daily and Cumulative Precipitation at Victoria Gonzales, February 2019

The timing of winter in Victoria

The winter season can have different meanings, and its exact timing tends to vary from place to place.  Astronomical winter is from the winter solstice (roughly December 21) to the spring equinox (roughly March 21).  Meteorological winter is from December 1 to February 28. 

In Victoria, our winter (the coolest, cloudiest, and rainiest time of year) tends to come early.  On average, the coldest temperatures occur in late December.  By contrast, in most locations in the eastern half of Canada, the coldest temperatures of the winter tend to be in late January - a full month later.  The chart below shows the average daily maximum temperature in Victoria for astronomical winter (the blue line is the daily maximum temperature and the red line is a moving average weekly temperature to smooth out the trend).  You can see that temperatures tend to steadily increase throughout the winter, from about 6.5 C in late December to 11.5 C in late March. 

Average daily maximum temperatures in Victoria during the winter

Other aspects of Victoria's winter also tend to come early.  The rainiest month in Victoria is November, followed by December and January.  As we progress through the winter, it tends to get less and less rainy.  Victoria is most likely to receive snow in December, but the chances of snow decline later in the winter, particularly as we get into February.  December is the cloudiest month in Victoria, but sunshine starts to increase in January, then really increases in February and March. 

It's nice that we get the worst part of our winter over with in November and December, then we can look forward to gradually improving conditions after that!

2018 Year in Review

2018 was warmer and slightly drier than average in Victoria.

The mean temperature at Victoria Gonzales for 2018 was 11.0 degrees C, almost half a degree above the 30-year average of 10.6 degrees.  2018 was the 18th warmest year on record at Victoria Gonzales, going back 105 years.  The warmest year on record was 11.7 degrees in 2015.  It was also warmer than average at the Victoria Airport (10.7 degrees versus the average 10.1 degrees).  On the other hand, the  mean temperature at the University of Victoria was 10.9 degrees, which is slightly below its long term average of 11.1 degrees.

Ten of the twelve months had above normal temperatures, with only February and September being cooler than average in 2018.  While February 2018 was 1.2 degrees cooler than normal, both May and December were 1.2 degrees warmer than normal - the largest positive monthly anomaly in 2018.  July was a close third, being 1.1 degrees warmer than normal.

While 2018 was warmer than average, there were few extremely warm days during the year.  The warmest temperature was 27.2 degrees on August 14.  The warmest annual temperature at Victoria Gonzales is above 30 degrees roughly 50% of years.  The coldest temperature in 2018 was -2.2 degrees on February 21.  There were 7 days in 2018 when the temperature went below 0, compared with the long-term average of 9.5 days.

The chart below shows the daily maximum and minimum temperatures at Victoria Gonzales in 2018, compared with the long-term normal temperatures.  You can see the cold snap in late February, the unseasonably warm weather in May, as well as the generally warmer than average temperatures throughout the year.

2018 Daily Max & Min Temperatures at Victoria Gonzales

2018 was slightly drier than average in Victoria.  There was 594 mm of precipitation, 91% of the normal 654 mm.  Seven months were drier than normal.  Victoria typically experiences its driest weather in the summer months, and this year it was even drier than normal, with only 29 mm of rain from May to August, well under half the  normal 80 mm of rain for the period.

Thanks to its location in the Olympic Mountain rain shadow, Victoria receives less precipitation than surrounding locations, and 2018 was no exception.   The chart below compares annual precipitation in 2018 in locations around Victoria, Vancouver, and Seattle.  The Victoria Airport recorded 863 mm, 45% more than than the 594 mm at Victoria Gonzales.  The Seattle Airport received 908 mm of precipitation in 2018.  The Vancouver Airport recorded 1343 mm of precipitation while Vancouver Harbour recorded 1731 mm.  Interestingly, while locations in Victoria and Seattle were a bit drier than normal in 2018, the Vancouver locations were wetter than normal.  While Vancouver Harbour, on average, gets just under two and half times as much precipitation as Victoria Gonzales, in 2018 Vancouver got nearly 3 times as much.

Annual Precipitation in 2018

The chart below shows daily and cumulative precipitation at Victoria Gonzales in 2018.  You can see that the cumulative precipitation in 2018 (red line) fairly closely followed the long-term average trend (blue line).  Early spring was a little wetter than normal, followed by the dry summer.  Cumulative rainfall almost caught up to normal in November, but then fell slightly behind again by the end of the year.

2018 Daily & Cumulative Precipitation at Victoria Gonzales

There were 126 days with measurable precipitation in 2018, a little under the normal of 131 days.  The wettest day in 2018 was January 11, with 27 mm.  That was, in fact, the only day in 2018 with more than 25 mm of rain.  The long term average for Victoria Gonzales is 3 days per year with 25 mm or more precipitation.  There were 14 days with at least 10 mm of rain, compared with the  normal of 16 days.

Victoria had less snow than average in 2018, with 6 cm of snow, all of it recorded on February 21.  The long term average for Victoria is 21 cm of snow and 3 days with snowfall.  There was snow on the ground for 2 days compared with the long term average of 4.8 days.

Victoria's Fall of 2018: slightly warmer and drier than nomal

November 30 marked the end of meteorological fall (September, October, and November), so it's time to take a look back at the fall of 2018 in Victoria.  Overall, the summer was slightly drier and warmer than normal.  This was due to warmer and drier than normal conditions in October and November, since September was actually slightly cooler and wetter than normal.

Victoria received 186 mm of rain during the September to November period at Victoria Gonzales.  That's about 18% less than the 30-year average fall rainfall of 226 mm.  Rainfall was actually a bit above normal in September (28 mm in 2018 vs. the average 24 mm).  However, this was followed by a drier than average October (50 mm vs. 72 mm) and November (108 mm vs. 130 mm).  

There were 39 days with measurable precipitation this fall, with 11 days in September, 13 days in October, and 15 days in November.  That's actually slightly above the 37 days with measurable rainfall that Victoria typically receives during the fall (7 days in September, 12 days in October, and 19 days in November).  

The chart below shows daily rainfall during fall 2018, and compares the cumulative rainfall with the 30-year average.  September and early October were slightly wetter than normal.  This was followed by a two-week dry spell during the middle of October.  The end of October and beginning of November was the wettest period of the fall, with  nearly half of Victoria's fall rainfall this year being recorded over a 9-day stretch from October 27 to November 4.  This period included the wettest single day of the fall: 19.6 mm on November 1.  The remainder of November was a little drier than normal.

Daily & Cumulative Rainfall in Victoria, Fall 2018

The chart below compares the rainfall amounts in Victoria this fall with other locations in the regions.  As is typically the case, Victoria Gonzales had the lowest amount, with a total of 186 mm.  Victoria Airport had 280 mm mm of rain throughout the fall, about 50% more than Victoria Gonzales.  It was wetter still in Vancouver, with 425 mm at the Vancouver Airport and 552 mm at Vancouver Harbour - nearly 3 times what Victoria received.  By comparison, it was relatively dry in Seattle, with 260 mm.  That's less than Victoria Airport received, but still about 40% more rainfall than Victoria Gonzales.  

Fall 2018 Rainfall

The mean temperature this fall at Victoria Gonzales was 11.4 degrees, warmer than the 30-year average of 11.0.  Fall 2018 was tied for the 21st warmest in 105 years of record-keeping at Gonzales, so only about 1 in 5 falls have been warmer.  (Fall 1987 was the warmest on record, at 12.3 degrees.)  September 2018 was actually a bit cooler than average (14.3 degrees vs. the average 14.6).  However, both October and November were warmer than average.  In October it was 11.2 degrees vs. the average 10.9, while in November it was 8.7 vs. the average 7.5 degrees.  November was the 14th warmest on record at Victoria Gonzales (going back 105 years).  

The chart below shows the daily maximum and minimum temperatures at Victoria Gonzales during fall 2018, compared with the 30-year averages.  You can see that September was generally a bit cooler than average, while October and November were both a bit warmer than average.  The warmest day of the fall was 23.3 degrees on September 5, although it also reached 23.1 degrees on September 28, which was a greater anomaly from the average (which is 17.5 degrees for that date).  The coolest temperature was 2.7 degrees on November 19.

Daily Max & Min Temperatures in Victoria, Fall 2018